Red or blue? In fight for control of the Virginia statehouse, here are the major issues at stake

Partisan gridlock has been a key feature of the past two legislative sessions.

Republicans hold the House of Delegates, while Democrats have a majority in the Senate. More conservative measures have survived the House only to be killed in the Senate — and vice versa — but that could soon change.

All 140 seats in the General Assembly are up for election Tuesday.

Benjamin Melusky, assistant professor of political science at Old Dominion University, said there likely won’t be a monumental shift if Democrats gain control of both chambers. With Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin controlling the executive branch, the GOP would still wield power in Richmond.

But if Republicans hold the House and gain control of the Senate, Melusky said significant changes could be afoot.

“That’s when we would see Gov. Youngkin flex some legislative muscle,” he said.

When Democrats held unified control over state government in 2020 and ’21, they used the opportunity to push through a host of liberal policy measures, including legislation that tightened gun safety regulations, legalized marijuana and made it easier to vote early.

Today, Democrats only hold a slim majority in the Senate, but have proudly referred to it as a “blue brick wall” that’s blocked many elements of Youngkin’s conservative policy agenda.

“The Democrats have had strong cohesion; they stayed together and voted together,” Melusky said. “On top of that, they’ve used their power really well on committees — they’ve shaped the bills that go through and basically just stomped out the minority really easily.”

If Republicans knock down that wall, Melusky said it could shake up everything from taxes and abortion to guns and education.

The professor added the nation will be watching on Election Day.

“A lot of eyes are on Virginia because of how back and forth we are (politically),” he said. “At the same time, we are seeing basically a blueprint for the 2024 election in terms of issues on the ballot, messaging from the parties, what the demographics are going to look like — it’s kind of almost a dry run.”

Here are some of the issues at stake.

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Taxes

Cutting taxes is a pivotal part of Youngkin’s agenda. The governor successfully pushed for roughly $4 billion in tax cuts last year.

He built on that momentum this year by pushing to cut the corporate income tax rate from 6% to 5%, increasing the standard income tax deductions for individuals and joint filers, and expanding tax exemptions on veterans’ pensions by eliminating age requirements.

House Republicans supported the governor’s proposal while Senate Democrats pushed back, particularly against the corporate tax cuts, and argued the state had other priorities. A compromise was ultimately reached in September that included $1 billion in tax relief — eliminating the age requirements for veterans and allowing for a one-time tax rebate, but nixing the tax cuts for corporations.

Youngkin, however, would likely see more enthusiasm on future tax cut initiatives if the GOP controlled both chambers. Most, if not all, Republican candidates have stressed that tax cuts are a top priority and would grow the economy or help residents struggling with inflation.

Some Democrats also have highlighted the need for tax relief on the campaign trail. Others have said they didn’t support additional cuts this year because of the need for more education funding, as well as money for ongoing state projects, such as the widening of Interstate 64 or the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel expansion.

A recent report from the Virginia Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission found that Virginia’s schools are underfunded, with divisions receiving 14% less state funding than the national average.

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Abortion

Republicans are seeking to limit abortion access in Virginia. The national debate has heated up since Roe v. Wade was overturned last year.

Under current state law, abortions are allowed during the first and second trimester, or in the third if three physicians agree the pregnancy will lead to the woman’s death or substantially impair her health.

Youngkin is pushing for a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest or when the life of the woman is at risk. But he has previously said he believes life begins at conception and would “happily and gleefully” sign any anti-abortion legislation that came to his desk.

Republican candidates have rallied behind Youngkin’s 15-week proposal. Some candidates have stated they would not back any limits earlier than 15 weeks; others said they would consider further restrictions. Youngkin has presented his proposal as a middle ground solution.

Democrats, meanwhile, argue women in states with more restrictions are receiving a lower quality of care because doctors are hesitating to provide abortions even when women have nonviable pregnancies or face risky complications. Some also raised concerns that doctors are leaving or avoiding states that implemented new abortion laws.

Deirdre Condit, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University who focuses on women’s issues, previously explained that even laws with exceptions can create challenges for medical professionals.

The exact moment a patient’s life is “at risk” can be subjective or difficult to define, Condit said. Many doctors are therefore afraid of facing legal repercussions if law enforcement or the court system decides an abortion wasn’t — in their view — medically necessary to save a woman’s life.

There were 15,689 reported abortions in Virginia in 2020, according to the Virginia Department of Health. Of those, 387 occurred after the 15-week mark. Preliminary data from 2021 had similar findings.

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Firearms

With a Republican trifecta, residents would likely see looser gun laws in the commonwealth.

In 2020, Democrats — who then held a majority in both chambers — passed multiple gun-related bills, including a red flag law and universal background checks. Red flag laws allow police or family members to petition a court for the temporary confiscation of an individual’s firearms if that person is deemed to be a risk to themselves or others.

Some Republicans have since voiced support for rolling back those laws, especially the red flag law, arguing such measures were unconstitutional and violated the Second Amendment.

Youngkin has described himself as a lifelong member of the National Rifle Association and wrote in a social media post that he would defend the right to bear arms “with every legal capacity” at his disposal.

Education

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Youngkin has frequently zeroed in on K-12 educational issues.

On his first day in office, he signed an executive order banning the teaching of critical race theory in schools. Education officials in Virginia have repeatedly explained that CRT, which teaches about structural and systemic racism, is not taught in K-12 schools. But the issue has become a rallying cry among Republicans nationwide.

Soon after, Youngkin launched a now-defunct email tip line so parents could report teachers who taught “divisive concepts.”

The governor has further called for teachers to inform parents if a student has shared that they are gay or transgender at school. He’s also stated Virginia should reexamine how history is taught in schools.

Republicans in the legislature have followed his lead, with House Republicans putting forth multiple bills this year aimed at giving parents more control. None of the measures passed.

One bill would have made it easier for parents to opt their children out of immunization requirements at school. Another would have instructed the Department of Education to work with school boards and parents regarding new policies for the removal of books and other materials in school libraries. A third measure would have required schools to create a database of library books that contained graphic content so parents could view it and instruct schools not to allow their children to access certain material.

While Republicans argue parents deserve more of a say in student’s education, Democrats say the so-called parental empowerment movement ultimately burdens school staff and demoralizes educators and dismisses their professional training.

Katie King, katie.king@virginiamedia.com