Red, blue, purple: With independents surging, what is Arizona's political identity?

Independents are once again Arizona's largest group of registered voters, but political experts hold varying views on what that means for the state's political identity as it barrels toward a presidential election year.

About 1.45 million Arizonans are independents, or voters not affiliated with a political party officially recognized by the state, per data released by the Arizona Secretary of State's Office on Friday. That gives them a narrow lead over the state's 1.44 million registered Republicans.

Arizona also has about 1.26 million registered Democrats, 33,700 registered Libertarians and 8,500 voters registered to the No Labels Party, which was just officially recognized by the state in March.

It's the second time that independents have led in statewide voter registration numbers. Unaffiliated voters first took the lead from GOP voters in 2014, but were overtaken again by Republicans two years later. From 2018 to 2020, both the Republican and Democratic parties deployed paid efforts to up their voter registration numbers, leaving the independent voting bloc in the dust.

Now, independents are surging again. In June, unaffiliated voters made up about 53% of new voter registrations in the state's largest county, Maricopa. Independents currently lead Republicans in Maricopa County registrations by about 30,000 voters and lead Democrats by nearly 150,000 voters.

Arizona pollsters and political strategists generally agree that the shift is unlikely to dramatically change the elections landscape in Arizona. But they had varying takes on exactly what the change means for the state's political identity.

"There's a lot of varying opinions and also just misperceptions that go throughout our society (of) what an independent voter is," said Democratic strategist D.J. Quinlan of Radar Strategies.

Are unaffiliated voters actually independent voters?

Unaffiliated voters are not necessarily moderates or swing voters, experts say.

Those who switch to unaffiliated from being registered to a party tend to maintain their party preference, said Paul Bentz, a pollster and strategist at Republican-leaning Phoenix firm HighGround. He conducted a statewide survey of 400 independent voters in 2021. The results of his research showed that a little under 60% of unaffiliated voters described themselves as independent swing voters, and only about 35% said they had never been registered to a political party.

Bentz estimates that about half of the unaffiliated electorate are true swing voters. Bentz said he sees these voters as more likely to be issue-driven.

"These are the same folks that won Arizona for Donald Trump in 2016 and then turned around and moved it for Biden in 2020," he said. "So, they are movable."

Others believe the number of unaffiliated voters who are actually swing voters is lower, with conservative strategist and pollster Landon Wall of Alloy Analytics estimating that 70% to 80% of unaffiliated voters won't split their ticket.

"These people really do mostly vote a single party" for much of their lives, Wall said. "Independents are becoming a bigger group, but it doesn't necessarily mean that there's more persuadable votes."

But independent voters also tend to participate in elections at lower rates than party-affiliated voters, experts said. That makes their impact smaller.

"Part of the reason why they're not registered with a party is, to some extent, that they just haven't been as engaged in the political process," said Quinlan, the Democratic strategist. "So I do think there is a scenario where they could matter, but it's not a super likely scenario."

Being unaffiliated means more barriers, experts say

It's not just that independents are less engaged, Bentz said. Their turnout is also driven down because they are treated differently than other voters and are forced into party-specific primaries that may not satisfy them.

"The rules aren't the same for independent voters and everybody else," he said.

For instance, voters registered to political parties and signed up for early voting by mail automatically receive their party's ballot during primary elections. But independent voters must notify election officials which party's ballot they want. Only then is it mailed to their door.

That means that unaffiliated voters must "shop from one aisle" in primary elections, Bentz said. They cannot choose from a slate of Republican candidates in the gubernatorial primary and a list of Democratic candidates in the secretary of state's race.

There are also some limitations on which primary elections independent voters get a voice in. Arizona's Libertarian Party doesn't allow independent voters to vote in their primary elections at all. Additionally, they cannot vote in presidential preference elections.

All those limitations combined mean that the party faithful tend to pick the candidates that appear in general elections — many of whom may not be appealing to independent voters. An independent candidate could try to get on the ballot, but in Arizona, that's "incredibly difficult," Bentz said.

"They face signature requirements that are six times as high as either their Republican or Democratic counterparts," he said. "It is a significant barrier to participation for any of these independent candidates."

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Will independents stay on top?

Independents are unlikely to hold their lead in voter registrations for too long — at least, in the short term. That's because some unaffiliated voters will change their registration so they can vote in a presidential primary.

While Democrats aren't expected to hold a presidential primary since President Joe Biden is planning to run again, Republicans are preparing to hold a presidential primary in March 2024, ahead of the November general election.

That means some unaffiliated voters will register as Republicans to vote in the party's presidential preference race, Quinlan said.

"Historically, what you've seen is there is a rush of people in the lead-up to the presidential preference reregistering from independent to whatever party they want to participate in," he said. "That's going to count for some of the Republican gains."

Bentz predicts that the parties or other political organizations may also opt to begin efforts to up Republican and Democratic registrations, like in 2018. That could pull some people away from the crowd of unaffiliated voters.

Arizona's political identity? Purple? Or purple-spotted?

Nobody entirely agrees on whether Arizona is a red state, a blue state, a purple state or something else entirely.

Bentz believes that the state — and Maricopa County — is still largely conservative, pointing to Republican Kimberly Yee's victory in the state treasurer's race last year. Arizona voters, he said, still "default" toward moderate Republicans.

But, he said, there are parts of the state that are changing.

"Arizona is not a purple state," Bentz said. "It's a red state with purple spots. It's more like a Dr. Seuss character than, you know, full purple."

Quinlan views it a little differently. Like Bentz, he sees portions of the state where Republicans have a competitive advantage and other areas in which Democrats have done well in recent election cycles.

"Parts of rural Arizona are getting redder as they're growing, particularly Mojave, Yavapai and Pinal counties," he said. "And meanwhile, the central metropolitan areas are getting more blue, more Democratic. And the suburbs are becoming more Democratic, which is turning them more purple."

But, unlike Bentz, he sees the state as purple overall, with Democrats making increasing gains. Yes, political polarization and far-right Republicans have helped Democratic candidates win victories, Quinlan said, but the Democratic Party has also made significant gains. "Two things can be true at the same time," he said.

"This line that you get from some folks that, 'This is still a Republican state, but with a little bit more purple' — the numbers don't really back that up," Quinlan said. "In the elections, you look out across the board, this is the quintessential definition of a purple state."

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Sasha Hupka covers Maricopa County, Pinal County and regional issues for The Arizona Republic. Do you have a tip to share on elections or voting? Reach her at sasha.hupka@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter: @SashaHupka.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: With independents surging, what is Arizona's political identity?