Red hot K-State Wildcats baseball team still has work to do for NCAA Tournament invite

When Kansas State baseball coach Pete Hughes says the Wildcats are playing like a “postseason team” at the moment, it’s hard to argue with his assessment.

K-State (27-16, 6-9 Big 12) has reeled off six straight victories and has won 10 of its past 12 games. There are few hotter teams in all of college baseball.

“We’re a postseason team, absolutely,” Hughes said during a Zoom call on Wednesday. “Postseason teams have the arms, and we have the arms. One through nine, we’re starting to swing the bat. We’re playing good defense. To me, that’s the key. I think we’re a postseason team, no question.”

The Wildcats have certainly put themselves within reach of their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2013 thanks to their recent hot streak, but they still have much work to do before they can live up to their coach’s optimism.

Few experts currently view K-State as a tournament team. Baseball America and D1Baseball both project the NCAA Tournament field each week, the same way Bracketologists like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm do with basketball, and neither of them have the Wildcats listed in their latest projections.

Not in the field of 64. Not in the first four teams out. Not in the next four teams out. Not anywhere.

Why? The simplest explanation can be found in K-State’s computer numbers. The Wildcats don’t rank well nationally in terms of RPI (131 out of 294) or strength of schedule (198 out of 294). The NCAA Tournament selection committee isn’t expected to value that data as much as normal this year, because not all teams are allowed to play nonconference games during the coronavirus pandemic. Still, K-State may still need a better record than usual in order to earn a postseason invitation because of them.

Two other factors are also potentially holding back K-State’s postseason chances. It only has two victories against teams currently in the top half of the Big 12 standings. And it has only won five games away from home.

The Wildcats’ current hot streak occurred entirely at Tointon Family Stadium.

With three series left before the Big 12 Tournament, the Wildcats have opportunities to improve their tournament resume. But time is running out.

“The one stain on resume right now would be ... our road record,” Hughes said, “which is perfect for where we are with our schedule. We can change that. We have not played well on the road up until this point, but two of our last three weekends are on the road and it gives us the chance to change that. It’s a perfect opportunity.”

First up is a weekend series at Baylor (27-13, 7-8) on Friday. Then K-State will head to Kansas (24-21, 4-11) for a Sunflower Showdown series. Then it will finish up the year at home against No. 3 TCU (33-10, 15-3).

The Wildcats will get six chances to improve their road record and three chances to defeat one of the nation’s best teams.

If K-State can post a winning record over that nine-game stretch, odds are good it will be considered at least a bubble team heading into the Big 12 Tournament. Likewise, a losing record could doom their postseason chances.

Hughes understands how important the next three weeks are for his team. Some coaches refuse to look ahead, but he spent several minutes earlier this week talking with players about what it will take for K-State to reach the NCAA Tournament.

“We have just got to be able to finish strong here these last three weekends in conference,” Hughes said. “This is a pivotal, pivotal weekend.”