Redistricting still won't make this congressional district competitive for GOP | Opinion

I still remember the scene. It was 2002 and the state House Republican caucus was meeting in Frankfort. I was one of its members. The only topic on the agenda: reapportionment, the decennial process of redrawing legislative district boundaries to reflect population shifts since the last census. Since we Republicans were outnumbered by the Democrats, the Democrats would be in charge of this process, a prospect that all of us dreaded. But there was hope! Our party had recently taken control of the state Senate. Our Republican colleagues in the Senate would have our backs and would block any punitive redistricting plan put forward by the House Democrats – or so we thought.

When the euphoria had reached its apex, suddenly the newly-minted Senate President Mr. David L. Williams came through the door. “Well, fellas,” he said, “We just cut a deal with the Democrats – we get to redistrict the Senate and they get to do the House. They’ll pass our plan and we’re going to pass theirs – with no changes. Best of luck to you.” With that, he turned and walked out of a very quiet room.

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The old “Best of Luck to You” vapors are back. According to Republican state lawmakers I have spoken with, when their 2022 redistricting bill is released, it will feature no move, as in none, to make our 3rd Congressional District here in Louisville competitive in next year’s election – or in the next five elections. To use former Sen. Williams’ parlance, a deal has apparently been cut to make the districts of Kentucky’s five incumbent GOP U.S. House members in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th Districts even more impregnable. To accomplish this goal, it is said, the current boundaries of the 3rd District will be left more or less intact.

I’m told this decision was made at the “highest level” which, translated, means by those five Republican congressmen and signed off on by Sen. Mitch McConnell. That means the majority party in the commonwealth is not going to rectify the disastrous decision made 10 years ago that vacuumed up what’s left of the GOP precincts in Jefferson County — basically everything east of Hurstbourne Lane and north of Taylorsville Road — and disgorged them into Rep. Thomas Massie’s 4th District, a district that was already overwhelmingly Republican. This plan guaranteed Democratic congressman John Yarmuth’s automatic re-election for 10 years just so Rep. Massie could win during the same years by 62%, 68%, 71%, 62%, and in 2020, by 67% margins.

It doesn’t appear that the Republican congressmen need much help. In his three races for the U.S. House, 1st District Rep. James Comer got 73% (2016), 69% (2018) and 75% (2020) of the vote. Rep. Brett Guthrie in the 2nd District seems to be what they call “entrenched.” His winning margins over the last five elections were 64%, 69%, 100% (he was unopposed in 2016), 68% and, last year, he squeaked by with 71% of the vote. Congressman Harold “Hal” Rogers, over a 40-year (and counting) career as the 5th District congressman, is routinely re-elected every two years with, by average, 71% of the vote – last year’s margin: 84%. Kentucky’s 6th District congressman Andy Barr’s winning percentages going back to 2012 are 51%, 60%, 61%, 51%, and last year, 57%. His two close calls were in 2012 when he defeated an incumbent Democrat and in 2018 when Amy McGrath threw an astounding $7.6 million at him. Although outspent, Rep. Barr still won that race by 10,000 votes and carried 17 0f 19 counties in what was a terrible year for Republicans.

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Surely there must be a way to shear off some reliably GOP turf from congressmen Rogers, Massie and Guthrie – whose utterly safe districts adjoin Mr. Barr’s – to make his (Barr’s) re-elections more certain without throwing in the towel in Louisville’s 3rd District. You’ll never convince me that restoring Jefferson County’s east end plus adding all or part of staunchly-Republican Oldham County to the 3rd would cause a scintilla of risk for any of Kentucky’s current GOP congressmen. Louisville is strongly Democratic but when the 3rd District included eastern Jefferson County it elected to congress, Republican Anne Northup (over an incumbent Democrat) in 1996 and re-elected her four times thereafter.

Where is the Jefferson County Republican Party? As Abraham Lincoln once said, “To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards out of men.” Does U.S. Speaker of the House-in-waiting, Kevin McCarthy, know about this? His plan to take back the House next year can ill afford to give up chances to flip Democrat-held seats in states where the GOP controls the redistricting process.

I admire Sen. McConnell very much and respect his remarkable career in the U.S. Senate. I served in the legislature with two of our GOP congressmen who began their careers in Frankfort. But it’s painful to watch them support a redistricting proposal that will do nothing to change the template in our county; that whatever Democrat wins their primary next May is a shoo-in for election to Congress in the fall. To our party’s leadership, I say: Don’t just wish the Republicans here in Louisville “best of luck,” give us a shot!

Bob Heleringer is a Louisville attorney and Republican who served in Kentucky's House from the 33rd District from 1980 to 2002. He can be reached at helringr@bellsouth.net.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: KY map redistricting won't help Republicans in this area | Opinion