Reeves, Presley make final pitches as general election nears for MS governor race

The messages remain the same as incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves and Democratic challenger Brandon Presley spend the next couple of days making their final pitches to be the leader of the highest governmental position in Mississippi.

Reeves, after serving two terms as lieutenant governor, will be seeking reelection for a second term as governor. Reeves won the Republican nomination in a runoff over Bill Waller in 2019 by a margin of 8.2%. He then defeated Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood by about 5%.

Hood garnered more votes as a Democrat (414,000) in 2019 than any in this century and still lost to Reeves by more than 45,000 votes. In this century, the most votes ever cast was in 2003 (894,487) when Haley Barbour ousted incumbent Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, who in 1999 was the last Democrat elected to the state's highest position. In 2003, Musgrove tallied 409,000 votes and still lost by more than 60,000.

Therein, lies the rub for Presley. The math is a problem.

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Presley's message of Medicaid expansion has been popular, even with many Republicans. However, getting as many as 60,000 more votes than any other Democrat this century may be a tall order.

Another thing that could be problematic for Presley is third-party candidate Gwendolyn Gray. Gray announced several weeks ago that she was dropping out of the race and threw her support behind Presley. However, her decision was announced more than two weeks after absentee voting had already begun, with ballots that list her along with Reeves and Presley.

Presley is a state utility regulator and cousin of rock icon Elvis Presley. He said he is honored to receive Gray's support as he tries to earn votes from Democrats, Republicans and independents “who are ready to expand Medicaid on day one, cut the highest tax on food in the country, and clean up corruption once and for all.”

However, in a race that Presley could need every single vote, any vote that goes to Gray is essentially a vote for Reeves.

If, indeed, the race is particularly close as some polls have suggested in recent weeks, Mississippi, for the first time, faces the possibility of a runoff in a governor's race. Winning requires a majority of the popular vote. If no candidate tops 50% in the general election, the top two candidates will advance to a Nov. 28 runoff. A few thousand votes to Gray could also force a runoff.

The state previously used a more complex method of electing a governor. In addition to winning the popular vote statewide, a candidate had to win in at least 62 of the 122 state House districts. If no candidate fulfilled those requirements, the race was decided in the House of Representatives, where members were not required to vote as their districts did.

The old election method was a Jim Crow-era provision designed to undermine Black voting rights. Mississippi voters repealed it in 2020 after it was challenged in federal court.

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In early October polling conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling sponsored by the Magnolia Tribune, Reeves was leading with 51% of the vote, compared to Presley's 43%. A recent Democratic Governors Association poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, shows a closer race, with Reeves leading by just one point, 46% to 45%, with nearly 10% undecided. Both polling services have strong A- ratings by FiveThirtyEight, an industry leader in evaluating polls.

FiveThirtyEight calculates a mean reverted bias to see how polling services do over time. The Public Policy Polling history has a slight lean to the left. The Mason-Dixon Polling has a slight lean to the right. But both have strong histories of accuracy with each having more than 440 polls analyzed.

Presley has raised $11.3 million for his campaign this year, compared with Reeves' $6.3 million, according to finance reports filed Tuesday, reported by the Associated Press. But Reeves started the year with more money. Presley has spent $10.8 million and still has $1.3 million, while Reeves has spent $11 million and still has $1.2 million.

Presley has continually attacked Reeves' stance on Medicaid expansion and said he believes he could work better with Republican legislators than Reeves could with the either side.

"We have serious problems in Mississippi," Presley said recently. "We have 34 hospitals that are at risk of closure and five have closed in-patient care. … If not for the partisanship and the cheapness of politics, we would expand Medicaid right now. But I make this pledge, when I am elected governor, we will take steps on Day 1 to begin to take steps to expand Medicaid."

Presley has also been critical of Reeves as being part the TANF corruption scandal that has been going on for many years.

Meanwhile, the governor has pressed the issue, as he did at Wednesday's debate, that Presley has accepted thousands of dollars in political contributions from the solar industry. Reeves suggests that as a Public Service Commissioner, accepting the contributions is illegal and at one point said, "I'm going to let you explain it to the judge and jury."

Presley notes that solar companies are private and not public utilities and thus fair game.

Ross Reily can be reached by email at rreily@gannett.com or at 601-573-2952. You can follow him on Twitter @GreenOkra1.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: MS election: Reeves, Presley make final governor's race pitches