UPDATE: Regional positivity rate down in encouraging territory

May 13—MANKATO — New COVID-19 case and test data resulted in an encouraging week for south-central Minnesota.

Numbers from the Minnesota Department of Health's weekly COVID-19 report showed COVID-19 testing was down in the south-central region this week, but new case totals were down even more.

Taken together, the weekly numbers added up to a 3.4% positivity rate in the nine-county region between May 5-12, down from about 4.2% during the prior week.

Sustained positivity rates below 5% are considered good signs in assessing community spread. Despite the encouraging overall numbers in the region, local test sites still had relatively high rates this week.

Mankato Clinic had 5.4% of tests come back positive between May 5-12. The rate is an improvement, however, from the previous week's 6.8%.

The region's drop from about 4.2% to 3.4% of tests coming back positive was similar to the state's decrease this week. Minnesota's statewide positivity rate fell from 4.7% to 3.9%, according to data from the weekly report.

Between more people being completely vaccinated, warming weather and underlying mobility data, the lower positivity rates in recent weeks look meaningful, said Derek J. Wingert, a local data analyst with the COVID Tracking Project.

"All those factors are coming together to result in the successes we're seeing right now," he said.

Positivity rates were around 7% in early April for the south-central region. Data inconsistencies in more recent weekly reports made exact rates harder to calculate, but the general trend of late has been downward, even when factoring in wide margins of error.

The weekly data for May 5-12 appeared to show an undercount of new cases in Waseca County compared to the numbers reported in the health department's daily updates. Even adjusting the case total upward keeps the county and region's positivity rate low this week.

Brown County's 1.7% rate, meanwhile, was a drop from 2% last week along with being the 11th lowest rate in the state this week, Wingert said. Eight of the nine area counties had lower positivity rates than the week before, further indicating the region's downward trend is meaningful.

Blue Earth County was among the eight with lower rates this week, dropping from 4.5% to 3.5%. Martin County had the biggest drop this week, from 6.7% to 2.3%.

The only area county with a rise in its positivity rate this week was Nicollet County. There, the rate went from 3.2% to 4.5%.

Two counties had rates above 5% despite having better rates this week than the prior week. Le Sueur County's rate dipped from 7.5% to 6.3%, while Watonwan County had a smaller decrease from 5.8% to 5.2%.

As for new cases confirmed Thursday, area counties also had a drop compared to the previous day.

After combining for 55 Wednesday, the south-central region had 33 Thursday, according to the health department. Case totals have been relatively low over about the last week.

The counties also had no newly confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Minnesota had 19 more deaths linked to the illness statewide, however, raising the state's pandemic death toll to 7,274.

Of the 33 new cases, Blue Earth County's 13 were the most. Le Sueur County had the next most with eight.

Eight of the nine south-central counties had at least one new case. Watonwan County didn't have any new cases.

The full list of new cases by county includes:

* Blue Earth County — 13

* Le Sueur County — 8

* Nicollet County — 3

* Sibley County — 3

* Waseca County — 2

* Brown County — 2

* Faribault County — 1

* Martin County — 1

Statewide, Thursday's COVID-19 report shows Minnesota passed an important milestone in its fight against the pandemic: More than half the state's 16-and-older residents, 50.5%, have all their vaccine shots.

The effort to get the rest vaccinated, however, is turning out to be a challenge. The vaccination pace has collapsed in recent weeks and, despite signs of a possible rebound, it remains at a relative crawl.

About 61% of state residents 16 and older have at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine now. But with the pace only inching forward, it'll take longer to reach the state's 70% goal.

In south-central Minnesota, about 54.7% of residents have at least one dose. About 47.7% are completely vaccinated.

Eligible Minnesotans can now walk in for a COVID-19 vaccination without an appointment at the state's community vaccination program locations, including at the site in downtown Mankato.

Despite the slowing vaccination pace, the metrics around the disease continue to show Minnesota's spring case surge easing.

The count of known, active COVID-19 cases came in at 9,963 — down below 10,000 for the second consecutive day. It's the first time that's happened in nearly two months, and the current count is far below its most recent high of about 20,000 in mid-April.

Thursday's report showed 453 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Minnesota; 129 needed intensive care. Both figures continue to trend down from their recent peaks. New hospital admissions have dropped significantly.

While the overall trends are solid, officials are increasingly concerned about the spread of COVID-19 in younger people. They've been urging more testing of middle and high school students and weekly testing for athletes, coaches, referees and other youth sports participants.

People in their 20s still make up the age bracket with the state's largest number of confirmed cases — more than 109,000 since the pandemic began. The number of high school-age youth confirmed with the disease has also grown, with more than 48,000 15 -to 19-year-olds known to be infected during the pandemic.

Follow Brian Arola @BrianArola