Renewed risk for severe storms this week across drought-stricken Plains

As the third month of the primary severe weather season peak begins, AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring multiple threats for storm development across the south-central United States in the coming days.

On Friday and Saturday, a potent storm produced strong-to-severe thunderstorms across the country's center, which prompted tornado warnings across at least seven states.

One tornado carved a path of destruction from Sedgwick County into Butler County in Kansas shortly after 8 p.m. central time Friday. Teams from the Wichita National Weather Service office were sent out on Saturday and Sunday to gather data and estimate the possible rating of the tornado.

Meteorologists are tracking an area of low pressure that emerged from the central Rocky Mountains Sunday evening. The storm has the potential to produce a multiday threat of severe storms from far eastern New Mexico to portions of Missouri and Arkansas.

On Sunday afternoon, the storm threat began to develop along the New Mexico and Texas border through the Oklahoma panhandle and is forecast to advance eastward throughout the overnight hours.

Several severe hail reports were recorded in Texas and New Mexico on Sunday afternoon, including a report of baseball size hail near Lovington, New Mexico. Tennis ball size hail was also spotted near Andrews, Texas, which is located northeast of Odessa. Later in the day, baseball size hail was reported near Coyanosa and Stockton, Texas.

The cell that brought severe hail to Stockton later produced a confirmed tornado in McCamey, Texas, according to the National Weather Service.

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"A warm front to lift northward across the state of Texas with a dryline setting up across far eastern New Mexico. As the front lifts northward, it will open the door for Gulf moisture to surge back along the dryline," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Joseph Bauer.

As moisture from the Gulf of Mexico collides with the piece of energy diving out of the West, it will provide the spark needed for thunderstorm development.

Storms that erupted Sunday night produced reports of hail, damaging wind gusts and multiple accounts of tornadoes touching down.

"Regions from eastern New Mexico to western Texas are currently facing exceptional drought, so they will take any rain they can get; however, some of that rain can be quite heavy," stated Bauer.

Some cities impacted by the violent storms on Friday and Saturday will once again be within the hot zone for potential severe storm development as storms transition eastward on Monday.

"Rain and storms will be ongoing in the morning across the I-35 corridor from Wichita to Oklahoma City. This activity is expected to push eastward later in the morning and can allow the atmosphere to destabilize going into the afternoon," according to Bauer.

Depending on how quickly the rain clears during the early morning, another disruptive evening could occur on Monday from southeastern Kansas to central Oklahoma. The risk for renewed rounds of downpours, travel disruptions, hail, and even the threat of tornadoes can impact cities such as Wichita, Kansas, Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma, explained Bauer.

From early to midweek, the area of low pressure that can produce storms on Sunday and Monday across the southern Plans is expected to track farther east into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, bringing with it the threat for more severe weather.

Storms can turn severe throughout the afternoon hours on Tuesday as they track from Arkansas to Ohio and bring threats of downpours, hail and damaging wind gusts.

Meanwhile, back in the Plains, more rain, and severe weather is possible midweek.

"Yet another storm following a similar path through the interior West on Wednesday can bring the chance for severe thunderstorms back into the forecast for the region," noted Bauer.

Once again, thunderstorms will be capable or producing hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. More rounds of downpours is also set to target the area, which could help make another small dent in drought conditions across the region.

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