What is Rep. Matt Gaetz's endgame?

For as much as "Dems in disarray" has become political shorthand for the mainstream media's tendency to cast liberals as haplessly ineffectual ("if two Democratic members of Congress go to lunch and one orders a hamburger while the other gets a chicken sandwich, the reporter at the next table will start writing his 'Dems In Disarray!' story," The Washington Post joked nearly a decade ago), it's House Republicans who have brought the nation's capital so close to chaos in recent days. While Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) managed to outflank his party's most extreme members to narrowly avert a government shutdown this weekend, his success may have come at the cost of his speaker's gavel, thanks to elevated threats by Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz.

Speaking with ABC's "This Week" on Sunday, Gaetz — who helped lead the GOP insurgents in their unsuccessful shutdown push — announced he would file a motion to oust McCarthy from the speakership, predicting that "if at this time next week Kevin McCarthy is still speaker of the house, it is because the Democrats bailed him out."

While Gaetz has long been McCarthy's most enthusiastic rightward antagonist, his hostility toward the speaker has noticeably increased in the build-up to this weekend's shutdown vote, with "one lawmaker telling Gaetz to 'fuck off' for leveling unproven accusations against the speaker," according to Politico.  But beyond the bellicose chest thumping and TV news posturing, what is Matt Gaetz doing exactly? And, more importantly: Why?

What the commentators said

Speaking with CNN's Jake Tapper on Sunday, Gaetz insisted his attacks on McCarthy weren't "personal," while Tapper claimed Gaetz was speaking "the language of somebody who is looking for clicks and likes and Fox hits" rather than serious governance. Citing "some in the GOP," Politico suggested Gaetz could be pushing for "a future foothold as a conservative TV pundit" or even working toward a 2026 gubernatorial run. Gaetz is "one of the GOP’s most prodigious fundraisers," The Wall Street Journal agreed, noting that while the congressman has raised millions for himself this past cycle, "he raised zero for the NRCC" and is "likely hoarding cash for a 2026 gubernatorial run." The Journal also highlighted some Republicans who believe Gaetz's hostility "stem[s] from his belief that the speaker has played a role in an Ethics Committee investigation into Gaetz’s conduct."

Given the complicated triangulation of combined Republican and Democrat votes to save McCarthy's speakership if Gaetz follows through on his threat, this latest round of saber-rattling "isn’t driven by shrewd political calculation," according to Outside the Beltway's James Joyner. But, Joyner allowed, it's "plausibly a good strategy in the current Republican milieu."

This isn't to say that Democrats are willing to play along with Gaetz's gambit, however. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), for instance, warned her colleagues that they'd be "wasting your time on that guy because he has no sway" in the House. Instead, his skills are to "get on TV and to raise money on the internet," she continued, per Roll Call.

What next?

Addressing the House floor on Monday, Gaetz again threatened that an ouster "may happen later this week," but stopped short of beginning that process immediately, explaining that some Republicans may "vote differently" if McCarthy were to explain what Gaetz described as a "secret side deal" with President Biden over aide to Ukraine.

Gaming out potential scenarios for McCarthy's ouster, Politico claimed the "biggest pocket of votes for Gaetz right off the bat" were members of the Democratic Congressional Progressive Caucus, for whom defending McCarthy would "be suicide." To that end, New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, perhaps the CPC's most prominent member, told CNN this weekend she would "absolutely, absolutely" support a push to remove the "very weak" McCarthy as speaker, though her bloc is unlikely to "give up votes for free" and would probably seek Republican concessions in exchange.

Other Democrats are not so enthusiastic, with Steve Cohen of Tennessee telling Axios that he wouldn't "follow Matt Gaetz to Peter Luger's Steakhouse."

For his part, McCarthy is not backing down. "Bring it on," he told CBS's "Face The Nation" this weekend. "Let's get over with it and let's start governing."