Republican Tate Reeves has wider lead over Democrat Brandon Presley in latest MS Gov. poll

A new poll released Thursday found that Republican incumbent Tate Reeves holds a 7% lead over Democrat Brandon Presley in the state's race for governor, with a 4% margin of error.

This comes after two consecutive polls showed a race within the margin of error, with each having a different candidate in the lead.

The new poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling, a Florida-based pollster that often conducts polls in deep-red states like Mississippi and has garnered an A- ranking from poll aggregator and news outlet FiveThirtyEight. It was commissioned by the Magnolia Tribune and included 625 registered voters who indicated they were likely to vote in November.

The poll found that 46% of respondents intend to vote for Reeves and 39% intend to vote for Presley, the Northern District Public Service Commissioner. Fifteen percent of respondents were undecided, leaving an open race to garner their support.

The poll was broken down into a number of subgroups, including by region. Reeves holds a double-digit lead in North Mississippi, the Pine Belt/Southwest Mississippi and on the Gulf Coast, while Presley holds one in The Delta. The regions where support runs closest to even were Jackson Metro, where Reeves leads by 2%, and East Mississippi, where he leads by 9%.

The poll was also broken down by gender and age. Reeves holds a 19% lead over Presley amongst men, while Presley holds one of 3% amongst the state's women. Reeves also leads by 19% amongst Mississippians over the age of 50, while Presley wins those under 50 by 20%.

Less than 5% of voters who identified with a political party said they support the other party's candidate. Presley leads amongst independents, 42%-37%.

On racial lines, white respondents support Reeves 65% to 23%, while Black respondents picked Presley 69% to 11%. Undecided white respondents sit at 12%, while undecided Black respondents are at 20%.

Presley continues to face a name recognition gap compared to Reeves. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they do not recognize Presley's name, compared to just 5% for Reeves. Thirty-nine percent of respondents hold a favorable view of Reeves, while 34% hold an unfavorable view. Twenty-two percent of respondents view Reeves neutrally. For Presley, 20% view him favorably, while only 4% view him unfavorably. Thirty-nine percent of respondents hold a neutral view.

Neither Reeves nor Presley have issued a public response to the latest poll, but Presley's recently appointed communications director noted the low favorable view of the current governor.

"The real warning sign from this poll: Tate Reeves has run statewide 5 times and his favorability can't even break 40. Mississippians know Tate and they just don't like him," Michael Beyer said on Twitter.

The primaries will take place in August, with the general election coming on Nov. 7. Mississippi is one of three states with off-year gubernatorial elections this year. The other two are Louisiana and Kentucky, both of which are typically red states that currently have Democratic governors.

In Louisiana, incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards is term-limited and a number of Republicans are lining up hoping to flip control. Meanwhile, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear faces a long list of Republicans trying to prevent him from gaining a second term.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi 2023 Governor Race: latest poll gives Republican lead