Republican Tom Kean Jr. all but declares victory against Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski in NJ-07 rematch

BASKING RIDGE, N.J. — A buoyant Tom Kean Jr. walked into a Republican election night party Tuesday to jubilant music, but stopped just short of declaring victory against two-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District.

“We are on a really great trajectory. I believe we’re going to win this thing tonight,” Kean Jr. said remarks that had all the trappings of a victory speech, save for the victory declaration.

The 54-year-old Kean Jr. is the son of popular former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean Sr. and the scion of a political dynasty dating back centuries. POLITICO has not yet called the race. With 95 percent of precincts reporting at 2 a.m. Wednesday, Kean Jr. lead Malinowski, 52.3 percent to 47.7 percent.

Kean Jr. lost to Malinowski by 1 point in 2020.

If Kean Jr. prevails, he’ll represent the only New Jersey seat that flipped on Tuesday. The formerly solidly-Republican Central Jersey district is considered one of the wealthiest in the country. While Kean Jr. didn’t declare victory, he told reporters after the speech that “there is no pathway by which my opponent can win this race.”

Malinowski has been buffeted by a stock-trading scandal for reporting millions in trades late and a district redrawn by his own party to be more Republican-friendly to shore up other potentially-vulnerable incumbents.

Kean Jr. thanked Malinowski for “his years of service and a spirited campaign.”

Democrats currently hold a 10-2 majority in New Jersey’s House delegation.

Malinowski has not conceded the race.

“We’re going to go home tonight uncertain, and that’s OK,” Malinowski said at his campaign’s party in Garwood, N.J. ”That’s better than a lot of people thought we would be tonight.”

The congressman also said that, had his district not been redrawn to more heavily favor Republicans, “there is no question that we would be winning hands down.”

Kean, who served in the New Jersey Senate for 20 years until January, much of it as minority leader, ran a low-risk campaign in which he eschewed most media interviews. Despite two halting debate performances, Kean Jr.'s family name, a favorable political environment and Malinowski’s troubles made him frontrunner for the seat throughout the campaign.

This was the Republican's fourth run for federal office. He came within 1 point of ousting Malinowski in 2020, was the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in 2006 and lost the Republican nomination for a House seat in 2000.

Kean Jr.’s campaign focused mainly on the nation’s high inflation rate.

Malinowski’s campaign, which many Democrats wrote off immediately after redistricting, got a boost from the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which Malinowski honed in on throughout the campaign — along with tying Kean Jr. to former President Donald Trump.

Kean Jr. studiously avoided discussing Trump, allowing the state Republican Party to paint him as a Trump loyalist in mailers while saying he supported abortion for up to 20 weeks.

Part of Kean Jr.'s own campaign website was specifically targeted to conservative voters during the primary. It labeled him a “fierce defender of the sanctity of life, fighting every step of the way to protect the unborn from egregious abortion laws.”

Kean Jr. also leaned into conservative backlash against New Jersey’s sex education teaching standards, which Malinowski called “made-up cultural bullshit.”

While Malinowski out-spent Kean Jr. more than two-to-one, about $6.8 million to $3.1 million, Kean Jr. had more help from outside groups who spent millions of dollars in ad buys.

Daniel Han contributed to this report.