Republicans can't quit holding their House speaker hostage

On paper, at least, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is everything the furthest-right wing of his party could hope for in a congressional leader: a "social conservative's social conservative" according to Politico's Calder McHugh, Johnson's track record of helping engineer former President Donald Trump's failed election subversion effort, and his longstanding ties to hard right groups like Alliance Defending Freedom are the sort of bona fides that rightfully vaulted him to the top of the MAGA-infused GOP to end weeks (if not months) of internal discord over the party's leadership. But no matter his compelling CV, Johnson's short tenure as speaker has largely been beset by many of the same problems that not only plagued his predecessor, California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, but scrambled much of the process to elect McCarthy's successor.

That dynamic — a barely-there House majority under a Democratic Senate, and a hardline wing of his own caucus committed to the most extreme legislative iterations — came into particularly sharp focus this week, as Johnson faces growing frustration from his rightmost flank while staring down a similar government funding dilemma to the one which ultimately ended McCarthy's speakership this summer. While not entirely unforeseen, the simmering dissension among his Republican ranks that spilled into public view this week has nevertheless raised the prospect that MAGA bona fides notwithstanding, even Johnson might not be immune from the dysfunction that's come to define this current House majority.

'Lashing out'

After dozens of his caucus' most conservative members sunk a procedural vote on Wednesday, Johnson found himself stuck on a "tightrope between political reality and what can satisfy his right flank," according to CNN's Lauren Fox. The actual content of the failed vote — dictating the rules for debate over a series of "resolutions of disapproval for Biden administration rules" — was secondary to what Rep. Bob Good (R-Va), one of the leaders of the far-right Freedom Caucus, told CNN was "making a statement" about Johnson's willingness to compromise with Democrats over government spending. That deal has "largely mirrored" the one which McCarthy struck with Democrats last year, and which instigated his eventual ousting, CNN reported.

The Republicans who voted against the rest of their party were not concerned with the "substance of the legislation" they'd tanked, agreed RollCall's Niels Lesniewski. Instead, they were simply "lashing out at Johnson over working with Democrats" on spending. For as much as Republicans had hoped to focus on their committee investigations into Hunter Biden and the potential impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, the failed rule vote on the House floor was ultimately the "biggest tell about the state of the Republican conference."

The Freedom Caucus' push to halt the rule vote "amounted to a warning shot" for Johnson by using a tactic "once seen as all but unthinkable in the chamber," The New York Times' Catie Edmondson reported. At issue is a spending agreement announced this past weekend which "essentially hews to the bargain made between Biden and McCarthy this summer. This new agreement is seen by hardline Republicans as a sign that Johnson had "surrendered to Democrats" by agreeing to a McCarthy-negotiated deal.

'That much-dreaded defenestration'

With Johnson stuck in familiar straits, there are "two potential options are on the table" for far-right Republicans, should the speaker not meet their impossible-seeming demands, according to Puck's Tina Nguyen: they could for a "two-week shutdown in protest," starting on January 19, the first of a series of funding deadlines. Barring that, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) has reportedly told colleagues "he reserves the right to call a motion to vacate" Johnson from the speakership, what Nguyen deemed "that much-dreaded defenestration" which has already tanked one GOP speaker, and scared off several hopefuls.

The mere threat of another speaker battle has prompted some moderate Republicans to preemptively warn against any such move, with Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) telling Semafor that "If they try it, they are f--king idiots."

For his part, Johnson has admitted that he's "frustrated too" in an interview with Fox News, insisting Republicans "have to work with the numbers we have and get the best we can." According to Axios, he has also asked fellow Republicans to "stop criticizing him and his budget negotiations on social media."