If Republicans don't regain the Senate, there's one person to blame: Donald Trump

Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, in a speech before a Chamber of Commerce luncheon in Kentucky last month, observed that in races for seats in the U.S. Senate, “candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”

Political professionals read the comment as a poke in the eye to former President Donald Trump and his endorsement of Senate candidates based solely on their loyalty to him.

In normal times, there is a procedure for recruiting and vetting GOP candidates for the Senate. Its purpose is to identify promising candidates and provide them with the resources to run a successful general election campaign.

Opinions in your inbox: Get exclusive access to our columnists and the best of our columns every day

That responsibility falls on two people: the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, currently Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, and the Republican Senate leader, Mitch McConnell. Ideally, they should work in harmony to win enough seats to achieve a majority.

Trump's influence looms over midterms

But this year, like so much else in American politics, Trump's shadow looms over the process; complicates, confounds and hinders it; and explains why McConnell has downplayed the likelihood of a Republican takeover of the Senate in November.

One example of this discord is the tension between Scott and McConnell.

At what cost?: To destroy Trump, is it OK to break the rules? We'll pay a high price for doing so.

Scott has never concealed his ambition to be a future Republican presidential nominee. To enter the charmed circle of GOP presidential hopefuls, Scott must avoid antagonizing Trump, whose iron grip on the party base makes his benediction a requirement for any future GOP aspirant.

Accordingly, Scott, whatever his own instincts might tell him about the fitness of an individual as a Senate candidate, must defer to Trump and his idiosyncratic standard for endorsement.

Opinion alerts: Get columns from your favorite columnists + expert analysis on top issues, delivered straight to your device through the USA TODAY app. Don't have the app? Download it for free from your app store.

That has not only driven a wedge between Scott and McConnell but has resulted in the nomination in GOP Senate primaries of individuals who fail to meet the “candidate quality” test due to their lack of any experience in government, a trait that, no doubt, endears them to Trump.

In a normal year, candidates such as Herschel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania might well have been denied the campaign committee and McConnell's support. Two of them – Walker and Masters – might have been actively discouraged from running.

Republicans saw Trump's end finally looming: Then the FBI gave his message a jolt of life

Criteria for supporting questionable candidates

Walker has a tangled personal history involving relationships with several women who gave birth to several children, some of whom Walker had not acknowledged. He also falsely claimed to have been in law enforcement. He has made a series of bizarre statements calling into question the theory of evolution. He has likewise claimed to have finished in the top of his college class, although he never graduated.

Blake Masters is in many ways the opposite of Walker. He is polished, Stanford-educated as an undergraduate and in law. He worked for and has been supported by tech tycoon Peter Thiel.

But Masters also is a 2020 election denier, has suggested that Social Security should be privatized and has endorsed the most extreme restrictions on access to abortion, only to later back off to a more moderate position. His most significant political credential has been his endorsement by Trump.

Are Republicans 'semi-fascists'?: Biden’s ‘basket of deplorables’ moment won’t play well

Oz needs no introduction to the people of Pennsylvania as a longtime national television personality, but his ties to the Keystone State are tenuous, and he has no government experience. His opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, has sought to make Oz into a carpetbagger. The Fetterman campaign has shown pictures of Oz’s two residences in New Jersey and property in Maine, Florida and Manhattan.

If Republicans emerge weaker

Carpetbagging used to be fatal, but the successful transplantation of such figures as Hillary Clinton has made this less toxic than it once was. Oz’s narrow victory in the Senate primary was possible only with Trump’s endorsement.

To boost his total of successful endorsements, Trump has blessed the candidacies of a number of incumbents who were destined to win with or without his support. According to Ballotpedia, of the 22 Senate candidates Trump endorsed, half are well-entrenched incumbents. Five are challengers to incumbents. The remainder are open seats.

If Senate Republicans emerge from the November elections weaker than they are now, that defeat must be laid at the feet of Trump, whose criteria for supporting candidates rest entirely on their fealty to him and only incidentally on the quality of their background and experience.

Ross K. Baker is a distinguished professor of political science at Rutgers University and a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors. Follow him on Twitter: @Rosbake1

You can read diverse opinions from our Board of Contributors and other writers on the Opinion front page, on Twitter @usatodayopinion and in our daily Opinion newsletter. To respond to a column, submit a comment to letters@usatoday.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Elections: Republicans want to win Senate. Blame Trump if they don't.