Can Republicans ever win again in NJ? Absolutely. GOP needs new branding

Though it’s not getting the press it deserves, what happened in New Jersey on Nov. 7 was really a tale of two elections. At the municipal and county levels, New Jersey Republicans had a very good night, highlighted by some very significant wins, including complete sweeps in Atlantic and Cumberland counties and several key mayor and council seats in Bergen, Camden, Essex, Middlesex, Passaic, Somerset and Union counties.

At the legislative level, though, there’s no sugar-coating it. Republicans got slammed. It’s worth noting that Republicans also had disappointing results in Virginia and Kentucky.

Some political columnists in our state seem almost giddy about blaming GOP losses on culture wars and fear-mongering. For sure, Republicans should have spent more time reminding New Jersey residents that they still pay the highest property taxes in the country and our state remains the worst in the nation in which to do business, especially on Main Street.

A great many people were, in fact, motivated by the rise in home break-ins and car thefts; Gov. Phil Murphy’s irrational energy policies; and school districts keeping secrets from parents. These aren’t culture wars. They’re kitchen table issues that had Democratic legislative candidates running scared, even issuing statements critical of Phil Murphy, who was nowhere to be found on the campaign trail for one singular reason: Democrats saw risk in campaigning with him.

Charlie Stile: Fear, parental rights didn't deliver for NJ Republicans as Democrats hold power

Six factors fueled Republican losses across New Jersey

In the end, six factors loomed large in Republican legislative losses.

Bad branding: While people may side with Republicans on some issues, a majority of voters hold a negative view of the Republican brand. This is tied, in part, to an unfavorable opinion of former President Donald Trump and sentiment over the Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade. The Republican speaker of the House debacle, which paralyzed our federal government and cast Republicans as unable to govern effectively, didn’t help.

Unaffiliated and independent voters: The second factor is specific to unaffiliated/independent voters. Typically socially moderate and fiscally conservative, more of these voters, at least right now, are voting Democratic due to Trump and the Dobbs decision.

Resources: The third factor is money. By early reports, Democrats outspent Republicans by more than 5-to-1, an advantage that totaled in the several millions of dollars. That’s no reflection on the Republican leadership, which raised more money than at any point in the past 20 years, but just a plain fact.

Voting by mail: The fourth factor is vote-by-mail (VBM). Since the 2020 all-VBM election, Democrats have worked to create a built-in advantage that Republicans have yet to equal. Republicans embracing VBM and early voting is critical if the GOP wants to win future elections.

Incumbency: The fifth factor is the power of incumbency, which obviously favors the Democrats. Case in point, more than 1 million households received a state-funded property tax rebate by Nov. 1. In all the post-election analysis, not a single member of the press corps noted this.

Local dynamics: The sixth factor is dynamics, keeping in mind the old adage “All politics is local.” Indeed, local dynamics were working against the GOP in a number of legislative districts.

In District 3, past social media posts came back to haunt the Republican Senate candidate. In District 4, a divided Republican Party fell short in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 30,000+ voters. In District 11, the Democratic senator, to his credit, works the district year-round and excels at bringing home the "budget bacon." In District 14, the overriding county executive race created an insurmountable hurdle. In District 16, Democrats successfully painted the Republican Senate candidate as out-of-step with the district. In District 30, the local Jewish community successfully united and coalesced around a single issue (i.e. school vouchers).

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Next election, Republicans can win in NJ. Here's how

One of the great things about politics is that the next election is always less than one year away. As a proud Republican, I’m committed to competing and winning. Make no mistake, we can win.

Candidates matter. Money matters. Messaging matters. Issues matter. We need to acknowledge that, right now, abortion and reproductive health, like taxes and the economy, are powerful issues.

The decision to terminate a pregnancy is deeply personal. For that very reason, I’ve always supported a woman’s right to choose. If New Jersey Republicans want to win elections outside of the deep-red areas of our state, our party needs a policy position that values voters on all sides of the issue. Only then will we once again attract those who support abortion rights and access to reproductive health services.

As I did in 2021, I’ll be doing my very best to lead the way on this issue.

Despite all our challenges here in New Jersey, our country and the world, we still have much for which to be thankful. With that in mind, more than ever, a most heartfelt Happy Thanksgiving to all. In celebrating the holiday, let’s also celebrate each other.

Jack Ciattarelli, the 2021 Republican nominee for New Jersey governor and a likely 2025 gubernatorial candidate, is a regular contributor to the opinion pages of USA TODAY Network New Jersey publications. 

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: NJ Republicans: New brand, better resources and reproductive rights can win