Republicans Face Prospect of Freakin’ Jim Jordan Being Speaker

Update, Oct. 17, 2023, at 2:15 p.m.: Twenty Republicans voted against Jim Jordan in Tuesday’s effort to select a new speaker of the House. Because one Republican member was absent, that left Jordan 17 votes short of winning the position, with about double the number of votes against him that congressional reporters (and at least one of Jordan’s allies) had anticipated. The House is now in recess, and it’s unclear whether there will be another speaker vote today; presumably, Jordan would push for one only if he believed he could come closer to 217 on a second attempt. The situation is, as they say, fluid.

Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan’s main interest as a public servant is pursuing the theory that there is a “deep state” conspiracy involving the government, major technology companies, etc., to suppress right-wing speech, frame Donald Trump for crimes, and protect Hunter Biden. This summer, to give you a sense of his priorities, he hosted Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for a hearing so that Kennedy could complain at length that his anti-vaccine beliefs have been censored. Jordan was also big into stolen-election gobbledygook and was a central figure in the plan to contest the Electoral College count on Jan. 6, 2021.

In short, Jordan specializes in the kinds of subjects that reliably function as a sort of magical dial that can turn down the share of independent and swing-voter support that Republicans receive in a given election. (The effect of overfocusing on MAGA issues has been demonstrated, like, dozens of times, but for one recent instance, look at this new study of “pivot voters” and search for the parts about Trump and Jan. 6.) Traditionally, he’s been seen as an albatross around the necks of Republicans from swing districts because he pressured party leaders into holding floor votes on right-wing causes that the vulnerable members didn’t want to have to register a position on. If they voted against Jordan, right-wing media would come after them and they might lose a primary election; if they voted for him, they might lose their general election.

Funny story: That’s the same decision that these center-leaning representatives are now faced with dealing with, in perpetuity, as they decide whether to vote Jim Jordan into office as speaker of the House.

To recap, after California Rep. Kevin McCarthy was deposed from the speakership by hard-liners for making a government-funding deal with the White House, Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise—McCarthy’s longtime frenemy in House leadership—beat out Jordan in an internal GOP vote to determine who should be the party’s next speaker nominee. But Scalise ultimately couldn’t get enough support to win over a full 217 members of the 221-member caucus, which is what he would have had to do to actually be selected speaker, in part because moderates were skeeved out that he is infamous for having once attended a conference for white supremacists.

Somehow, this resulted in Jordan, whose connections to various far-right groups and their recent attempt to overthrow the government are even more robust than Scalise’s, ending up with more widespread support in the caucus than Scalise had. Early this week, as the House prepared to open its floor back up for business on Tuesday at noon, it looked as if Jordan was going to win over vulnerable Republicans simply by promising not to do the kind of things he has spent his career doing, like forcing hot-potato votes and engineering government shutdowns. Literally, the pitch was just saying he wasn’t going to do that stuff anymore:

On Monday night, though, Jordan’s momentum stalled as roughly eight to 10 members signaled that they still aren’t ready to come around on him. Their objections were perhaps best summed up by Colorado Rep. Ken Buck, who said he’s not going to vote for someone who won’t admit that Donald Trump lost the last election.

So, what’s gonna happen when voting starts, which is now expected to be at about 1 p.m.? Nobody knows, and that’s what makes it so “fun”! Republican Texas Rep. and Jordan ally Chip Roy says he thinks Jordan will fall short in the first vote, after which he’ll try to meet with holdouts to see if he can win them over. On the Democrats’ side, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is floating the idea of a compromise plan to elevate North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry, who is serving as temporary speaker, to the permanent role.* McHenry, while conservative, is known for being interested in the actual workings of government in a way that Jordan is not, and voted to certify Biden’s victory in 2021. So far, though, no actual Republicans have said they would participate in that plan.

There’s also Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz, a nominally hard-line conservative who says—and while we realize that this is confusing, it’s what she said—she is happy to be the 217^th (i.e., winning) vote for Jordan but will not be the 211^th vote for him if he has only 210, and that this is happening because Jordan has used “McCarthy intimidation techniques” in his efforts to build a winning coalition.

As always, it’s a rich tapestry that adorns the halls of our democracy!