Republicans outnumber other voters in Central Bucks, Pennridge ahead of election

Editor's note: this story has been updated to correct an error inidicating Leah Foster Rash did not crossfile in the Pennridge School District primary race.

About 470,437 Bucks County voters will have the chance on Nov. 7 to choose their municipal leaders, their county officials, and the people who lead their school districts.

While the outcome of every race will locally impact hundreds of thousands of Bucks Countians, there’s likely few races that will be watched as closely as the elections in the Central Bucks and Pennridge school districts.

The nonprofit, nonpartisan online election tracking website Ballotpedia has listed the two races as its only Pennsylvania entries among 25 local “battleground” elections across the nation. Only five other school board races are included on Ballotpedia’s list of “meaningful” and “compelling” elections.

Central Bucks and Pennridge have made local and national headlines with both passing policies that get resounding support from parents’ rights groups and chided by free speech and LGBTQ rights advocates.

Each race has 10 candidates — five Republicans and five Democrats — running to fill five of nine school board seats this year.

Republicans currently hold the majority in Central Bucks and Pennridge.

While several controversies have riled support for both parties, Democrats might have a tougher road to climb if they want to wrest control away from Republicans in both districts.

Red vs Blue

Bucks County has become a political bellwether in recent years, a cross-section of urban and rural residents spanning a variety of political views and party affiliations.

As of Oct. 16, Democrats still made up the majority of Bucks County’s voters, though with only a slight lead of about 4,231 voters ahead of Republicans.

Lower Bucks County is where the majority of Democrats reside, in municipalities like Bensalem, Middletown and Falls.

The party split begins shifting red up routes 313 and Route 611, with Republican voters leading anywhere between single digits to a few thousand at the municipal level. Except for New Hope-Solebury, every school district above Neshaminy and Pennsbury lean Republican in their voter rolls.

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While most of the 92,122 voters in Central Bucks are Republican — the GOP makes up 43% of all voters — only residents living in one of five regions on this year’s ballot can cast a vote for their respective races.

Region 8, where board member Tabitha Dell’Angelo chose not to run for re-election, is the only section of the district where Democrats outnumber Republicans.

Republican incumbents Leigh Vlasblom (Region 3) and Sharon Collopy (Region 6) also chose not to run again this year.

Out of Region 8’s 10,758 voters, about 48% are Democrats to just 34% Republicans, a 14-point lead.

Democrat Susan Gibson is facing off against Republican Tony Arjona in that race.

In Region 2, where Republican school board President Dana Hunter is up against Democrat challenger Heather Reynolds, GOP voters have a 12-point lead over Democrats among the 9,520 voters there.

In the Region 3 race between Democrat Dana Foley and Republican Glenn Schloeffel, the GOP account for 44% of voters and hold a 7-point lead over Democrats, who make up 38% of the region’s 11,224 voters.

Region 1 sees the party divide narrow slightly more, with Republicans making up 43% of the 11,173 voters compared to the Democrats 39%.

Incumbent board member Karen Smith, a Democrat, is running against Dr. Stephen Mass in that race.

In Region 6, which pits Republican Aarati Martino against Democrat Rick Haring, the difference between total Republicans and total Democrats is just 1%. Among the 9,828 voters in Region 6, about 4,150 voters are Republicans and 4,013 are Democrats.

Pennridge is a less complicated race to break down since voters decide their board members “at large,” meaning every voter across the district can pick up to five candidates.

The Democrats running in Pennridge are incumbent board member Ron Wurz, Chris Kaufman, Bradley Merkl-Gump, Leah Foster Rash and Carolyn Sciarrino.

The Republican candidates are incumbent Jonathan Russell, Josh Hogan, Bob Sellers, Jim York, and Barbara Vees.

Out of 37,992 Pennridge voters, about 50% are Republicans and only 34% are Democrats.

Independents and voter turnout

While Republicans have the advantage in both districts by sheer numbers, taking victory on Election Day is going to depend on turnout and how many voters each candidate can grab from the political spectrum.

Independent and unaffiliated voters make up 17% to 18% of total voters in each of the five Central Bucks regions on the ballot. Other voters in Pennridge make up 16% of the electorate.

Democrat candidates in Pennridge will need as many of those other party voters as they can get to flip the board, especially if Republicans vote down-ballot across the board.

If every independent voter in Pennridge changed their affiliation to Democrat, the Democrats would still have just 34 more voters than the Republicans.

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The biggest danger for the Republican candidates right now is how many among their own party will vote Democrat this year.

Republican voters made up between almost 16% to almost 27% of total votes cast for all but one of the Democrats running.

Bob Sellers was the only Republican to crossfile and about 21% of his 4,478 total votes cast came from Democrats.

The May primary might also forebode a tight race in Central Bucks, where all 10 candidates appeared on both major party ballots.

Between 14% and 20% of the total votes cast for the five Democrats came from Republican ballots. Republican candidates in Central Bucks took between about 5% to 7% of their primary votes from Democrat voters.

Primary turnout this year was almost 22% across the county, which was just a few points shy of the almost 26% turnout during the 2021 municipal primary. Turnout at the November 2021 election was around 40%.

Prior to 2019, turnout for municipal primaries usually landed in the teens and municipal elections typically fell between 26% and 30%.

Candidates and election information

The first references to each of the 20 candidates that appear earlier in this story include a link to the candidate’s personal campaign website where available. A campaign Facebook page was linked if a stand-alone website couldn’t be found, and a link to that person’s page on Ballotpedia is included if a Facebook page is unavailable.

More information about the Pennridge candidates can also be found at www.PennridgeRepublicans.com and www.PennridgeCommunityAlliance.com.

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The Pennridge Ministerium is also hosting a candidate forum at 7 p.m. on Oct. 26 at Pennridge North Middle School auditorium.

All 10 Pennridge candidates have been invited, according to the local ministers, but it is unclear at this time how many have confirmed their attendance.

More information on the Central Bucks candidates can be found at www.CBSDNeighborsUnited.com and www.CentralBucksForward.com.

The Pennsylvania Department of State offers an online tool to help voters find their polling place.

More Bucks County election information can also be found on the county’s Board of Elections website.

Monday was the last day to register to vote in the Nov. 7 election. The final day to request a mail-in ballot was Oct. 31.

Polls open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day.

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Republican voters lead in Central Bucks, Pennridge ahead of election