Will Republicans pick up more power in 2024? Here are the House races the GOP wants to flip

Rachel Looker, USA TODAY
·6 min read
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WASHINGTON — House Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the lower chamber, but their campaign arm is focused on picking up more power ahead of the 2024 elections.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has compiled a list of Democratic lawmakers in districts across the country that could represent pick-up opportunities, allowing Republicans to expand their majority in the House.

Some Democrats on the list are first-year lawmakers. Others won in districts that former President Donald Trump carried in the 2020 presidential election, and several only carried their districts by narrow margins.

“House Democrats’ extreme policies on the economy, border and crime leave Americans desperate for new leadership," NRCC Communications Director Jack Pandol told USA TODAY in a statement. "With an inspiring class of House GOP candidates running, all signs point to growing our House majority.”

The campaign arm for House Democrats, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, compiled their own list earlier this year of districts Democrats could flip blue in 2024. The 33 districts are key battleground races − 18 of them ones Republicans won in 2022, but President Joe Biden carried in the 2020 presidential election.

“House Democrats have a record of accomplishments to run on like bringing back semiconductor manufacturing to the U.S., fixing our crumbling roads and bridges, and capping the cost of insulin," DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told USA TODAY in a statement.

Here's what you need to know about the pick-up opportunities Republicans have identified before 2024 to grow their majority in the House.

California, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan hold most pick-up opportunities

Representative Greg Landsman, D-Ohio, casts his first vote on the floor of the United States House Of Representatives for House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries D-N.Y., as the House votes for Speaker of the House for on his first day as the Congressman for Ohio's First District at the start of the 118th U.S. Congress.
Representative Greg Landsman, D-Ohio, casts his first vote on the floor of the United States House Of Representatives for House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries D-N.Y., as the House votes for Speaker of the House for on his first day as the Congressman for Ohio's First District at the start of the 118th U.S. Congress.

States like Pennsylvania and Ohio aren't just the center of attention during presidential campaigns.

The NRCC identified three districts each in California, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan that hold the most significant opportunities for Republicans in next year's House races.

In California, three-term Democratic Rep. Josh Harder made the list after defeating his Republican challenger in 2022 by nine points to represent the district encompassing Stockton, California. Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln is challenging Harder for the seat next year, running as a Republican.

The NRCC also has its eyes on the California district currently held by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who has entered the California Senate race to fill the seat once held by Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

California Democratic Rep. Mike Levin, who won his seat by five points, is also on the list. Levin flipped the district blue in 2018 after former Republican Rep. Darrell Issa retired.

The NRCC is targeting two Democratic freshmen in Ohio: Reps. Greg Landsman and Emilia Sykes. Landsman flipped the district blue after defeating the incumbent last year.

Nevada Rep. Steven Horsford, a Democrat and head of the Congressional Black Caucus Census Task Force, showed the toolkit he has given to caucus members.
Nevada Rep. Steven Horsford, a Democrat and head of the Congressional Black Caucus Census Task Force, showed the toolkit he has given to caucus members.

In Nevada, the pick-up opportunities fall to Democratic incumbents who narrowly defended their seats during the 2022 midterms. Rep. Susie Lee, currently serving her third term, won by four points. Rep. Dina Titus, first elected in 2008, and Rep. Steven Horsford, currently serving his fourth term, both won their districts by around five points.

The NRCC has a similar strategy in Pennsylvania, targeting representatives who squeaked by to win their districts. Rep. Susan Wild won with just 6,000 votes separating her from the Republican challenger. Rep. Chris Deluzio, a first-year lawmaker, won by nearly seven points.

In Michigan, the NRCC is focusing on the district represented by freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten. She flipped the seat blue after incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer lost in a Republican primary. Another Michigan district that made the list is an open seat, after current Rep. Elissa Slotkin said she plans to run for the Senate to replace Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who is not seeking re-election.

The last Michigan seat on the list is currently occupied by Rep. Dan Kildee, who has served in the House since 2012. He defended his seat last year, winning by over 10 points against the Republican challenger.

NRCC targets Democrats who won in Trump districts

Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, makes a statement in response to a mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine.
Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, makes a statement in response to a mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine.

The NRCC also has its eyes on House Democrats representing districts that Trump carried in the 2020 presidential election, places where Republican officials are hoping to play off the former president's popularity in order to send more Republicans to Washington.

Rep. Mary Peltola, who is in her first full term, is the at-large lawmaker from Alaska. She won by 10 points in 2022, ultimately defeating Republican opponent and former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin. Trump carried Alaska by 10 percent in the 2020 race for the White House.

Maine Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, a three-term lawmaker, also carried his district by six points − an area that voted for Trump in 2020.

Long-term Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur won in a district that Trump carried. Kaptur, 77, has been serving since 1982 and is in her 21st term.

In Pennsylvania, Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright defeated his Republican challenger by a narrow margin of 2.5 points in a district that Trump won by several points, representing a gap Republicans are hoping to close.

And in Washington state, freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez flipped her district blue by close to 3,000 votes in 2022. Trump pulled a narrow lead in the same district over Biden two years prior.

Other districts target freshmen

Rep.-elect Nikki Budzinski, D-Ill., from left, Rep.-elect Becca Balint, D-Vt., Rep.-elect Summer Lee, D-Pa., Rep.-elect Delia Ramirez, D-Ill., Rep.-elect Hillary Scholten, D-Mich., and Yadira Caraveo, Democratic candidate in Colorado's 8th Congressional District, stand for a class photo of newly-elected members of Congress on the East Front of the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2022.

The NRCC additionally listed the districts of a handful of first-year lawmakers − several of whom flipped their district blue during the midterms.

Freshmen Colorado Rep. Yadira Caraveo narrowly won in a newly formed district last year, with just 2,000 votes separating her from the Republican opponent.

In Illinois, freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen won by four points for a seat with no incumbents.

Freshman New Mexico Rep. Gabriel Vasquez flipped his seat blue, defeating the former incumbent and winning by just over 1,000 votes.

Other lawmakers who narrowly won with single-digit margins for their seats include New York Rep. Pat Ryan, Oregon Reps. Val Hoyle and Andrea Salinas and Rhode Island Rep. Seth Magaziner.

Other pivotal 2024 districts in play

Rep. Jahana Hayes, D-Conn., left, and Rep. Lauren Underwood, D-Ill., talk during a markup in the House Education and Labor Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 6, 2019.
Rep. Jahana Hayes, D-Conn., left, and Rep. Lauren Underwood, D-Ill., talk during a markup in the House Education and Labor Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 6, 2019.

With the White House, the entire House and a chunk of the Senate up for major changes next year, here are some of the other races where Republicans are hoping to convince voters to grant them more power in Washington.

  • Florida Rep. Darren Soto has been in Congress since 2016. He defended his seat by seven points in 2022 and will be facing 2024 Republican challenger John “Q” Quiñones, who served as the first Puerto Rican member of the Florida House.

  • Three-term representatives including Angie Craig of Minnesota, Chris Pappas of New Hampshire, Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Kim Schrier of Washington, who all won in their districts by single digits.

  • Four-term Texas Rep. Vicente Gonzalez won by over 11,000 votes, defeating the Republican incumbent Mayra Flores and flipping the seat blue. Flores is running for a re-match against Gonzalez in 2024.

  • In North Carolina, where recent redistricting has redrawn districts in favor of Republicans, Democratic Rep. Don Davis remains the most competitive seat. Davis won in 2022 by nearly five points.

  • Other opportunities include the districts of Connecticut Rep. Jahana Hayes, Indiana Rep. Frank Mrvan and Kansas Rep. Sharice Davids.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Republicans eye 2024: How the GOP is targeting swing districts