Kari Lake keeps giving Republicans new reasons to worry

National Republicans embraced Kari Lake's Arizona Senate bid, reasoning she was likely to win the primary with or without their support.

Now they are confronting the consequences of having a MAGA lightning rod as their nominee in one of the most competitive states in the country. And some GOP leaders are undecided about just how much support to offer her in a general election, given ample opportunities elsewhere to pick up Senate seats.

Lake has not managed a clean pivot from her hard-right roots. In the past month alone, she publicly waffled on her opposition to Arizona's near-total abortion ban and returned to the flamethrowing rhetoric of her last run when she urged voters to "strap on a Glock" to prepare for 2024.

That’s all given the GOP some pause. In Washington, Republicans say there are more appealing Senate races on which to focus their limited resources. And in Arizona, they are increasingly warning that Lake’s divisive persona and instinct for provocation could sabotage them yet again.

“When you don't really have a core belief in anything, and you're willing to take whatever position you think is politically expedient at the moment, you end up getting caught between a rock and a hard place before too long,” said former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.), who ran against Lake in 2022.

Now, as Democrats have placed tens of millions of dollars in fall TV reservations, national Republicans haven’t begun to seriously invest in the state. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell left Arizona off his list of places where the party is certain to play, and the top Senate GOP super PAC has begun placing ad buys in other states — but not in Arizona.

National money will be sorely needed as Lake is staring down an already massive financial disadvantage in her battle against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). Lake’s campaign expressed confidence in its standing.

“Kari Lake has raised the second most of any GOP challenger and is gaining in the polls, more than any GOP challenger,” said Garrett Ventry, a senior adviser to the campaign. “Her opponent, Ruben Gallego is far left, voting with Joe Biden 100 percent of the time. We will make sure voters know that she will win in November.”

Arizona’s Senate seat should in theory be a top Republican target for a pickup: It’s an open seat in a state where former President Donald Trump is viable. Republicans see Gallego as more vulnerable than previous Democratic nominees because of his lineage in the progressive wing of his party.

Yet as Lake has attempted to moderate her image and grow her support outside the party’s MAGA base, she is reversing her own positions and stirring up feuds.

Lake tried to court Salmon as part of her attempt to unify the party. But she also secretly recorded and released a conversation of the then-chair of the state party appearing to ask her what it would take for her to stay out of the Senate race, leading to his resignation and infuriating the old guard of the Arizona GOP.

Salmon declined to meet with Lake and thinks the Senate race might already be a losing cause.

“Ultimately, the Republican Senate committee is probably going to realize before too long that there's far better opportunities for victories in other parts of the country,” Salmon said.

Gallego started April with nearly four times more cash than Lake and is a formidable fundraiser. While Lake isn’t on TV currently, Gallego began airing positive spots several weeks ago. Meanwhile, Lake is raising eyebrows with frequent out-of-state visits to Mar-a-Lago and jaunts to campaign for other candidates.

Arizona is not likely to decide Senate control, because Republicans see several other races as easier to win. West Virginia is essentially a layup, Montana and Ohio are the highest priority targets and McConnell added Maryland to his top states. He left the door open for Lake: “Who knows about Arizona?”

A spokesperson for the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, which has reserved air time in Ohio and Montana, said the group is still evaluating Arizona and other states.

That leaves a crushing Democratic financial disparity. Senate Majority PAC, which is aligned with Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, reserved $23 million for the fall campaign. And Gallego has spent $7.9 million on ads and had $9.6 million on hand at the end of March; Lake has spent just $170,000 and has $2.5 million.

Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, the No. 3 GOP leader, argued the monetary disadvantage isn’t unique and is “expecting that just about every Republican candidate is going to be outspent.”

Republicans can’t write off the state, he said: “To me, Arizona is a top-tier state. Because it’s an open Senate seat.” Barrasso talks to Lake frequently.

In a sign the party is willing to give her a shot, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is preparing to launch a joint TV ad buy with Lake.

NRSC Chair Steve Daines said he’s supporting Lake strongly and further spending decisions in many races would come after the summer: “We have limited resources, and numerous opportunities.”

Lake isn’t making it any easier on herself.

When the state’s highest court enacted a near-total ban on abortion, Lake made a public pivot on abortion rights and lobbied state lawmakers to repeal the 1864 ban. Then, on the cusp of that repeal — and under fire from anti-abortion activists — she told local media on a stop in Idaho that it was disappointing that her state refused to enforce the law.

She’s also continued to talk about the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 governor election she falsely claims to have won, though countless Republicans urge her to stop. Lake’s attorneys were back in court this month asking judges to set aside the results of her governor's race, and she’s being sued for defamation by the Maricopa County Recorder.

And the same fire-and-brimstone rhetoric that Lake tried to swear off when she launched her run in October continues to crop up. At a rally last month, Lake urged supporters to “strap on a Glock” in preparation for the final months of the election.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) slammed her on “Meet the Press” last weekend, warning that “what Kari Lake said could result in people getting hurt or killed.”

A leading advocate against gun violence after his wife, former Rep. Gabby Giffords, was shot in the head in 2011, Kelly told POLITICO he’s had Republicans approach him to talk about Lake.

“You have somebody on the issue of abortion that is all over the map and has tied herself up into a pretzel over it,” Kelly said. “Arizona does not like divisive, angry people that are going to try to strip them of rights.”

It’s all grist for Democrats and Gallego to litigate this year in ads, and Republicans say it will take a collective effort to overcome.

“They're going to spend all the money replaying words that Ms. Lake may have regretted saying,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). “When you've got tens of millions of dollars being spent against you, you don't get the opportunity to redefine yourself. You’ve just got to plow through and define your opponent. ”

If national GOP money is freed up, it could go toward boosting Lake, Tillis said, but at the moment he estimated three or four Senate races “would be ahead of Arizona” in GOP priorities.

Similarly, Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), a former NRSC chair who is not endorsing Trump, said flipping the Senate is important — “It’s really important that Republicans control at least some lever of power in Congress” — but Arizona is “certainly not” among his top priorities.

“I don’t know that I’m participating in that one. It’s possible,” he said.

Beyond the three red states at the core of the map, GOP candidates will be vying for limited party resources in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Arizona.

"If Republicans look at the race objectively, I think they will realize that it's going to be tough for them to win that seat,” said Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, the Senate Democratic campaign chief.

But Arizona, once a GOP bastion, remains appealing to Republicans. And they see a good opportunity in running against Gallego, who once shared the stageat a rally for the progressive icon Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

The Marine veteran is trying to shed a liberal record he amassed in Congress. He has taken a slew of positions that Republicans are eager to nail him on, including his past support for "Medicare for All." He quietly ended his membership in the Congressional Progressive Caucus. “In this cycle, I think she is” competitive, said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) of Lake. “I think there's a very good chance we’ll catch a wave.”

The problem for Republicans: Arizona voters already have an established idea of who Lake is. And Gallego’s the only one defining himself on the airwaves right now.

Gallego went on TV in March and remains on air. His spots tout his time in Iraq and working-class upbringing.

“It's a great story and that's now how most people are going to know him. Because they were unaware of who he was before, he’s painting on largely a blank canvas,” said Chuck Coughlin, a longtime consultant for Arizona Republicans. “He's actually executing perfectly on the campaign that he's got to run.”