Republicans watching testy Texas Democratic primary

Republicans are closely watching the Democratic primary in Texas's 28th Congressional District, waiting to see which one of two very different candidates they'll face off against for a seat they see as a prime pickup opportunity.

Nine-term incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar is competing against progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros on Tuesday in the district that stretches from Laredo, along the border and up to San Antonio. Early voting has already begun.

Republicans have long considered Cuellar to be a difficult candidate to beat, given his conservative Democratic credentials and deep roots in the district. But an FBI raid last month on his home and campaign office, reportedly part of an investigation related to Azerbaijan, complicated his path to victory in both the primary and perhaps eventual general election.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) had already included Cuellar on its initial 2022 target list, pointing to President Biden's narrow margin of victory in the district. Now, Republicans say the FBI raid could make their task of flipping the district easier.

"Pre-FBI raid, Cuellar was viewed as basically unbeatable in this district," said a national Republican strategist. "That's no longer the case. Republicans feel good about either nominee coming out of this race."

NRCC spokeswoman Torunn Sinclair concurred, saying "Democrats are choosing between two bad options: a self-avowed socialist or a Congressman whose office and home were raided by the FBI."

Cuellar has denied any wrongdoing and said he is "fully cooperating with law enforcement and committed to ensuring that justice and the law is upheld."

South Texas has become fertile ground for Republicans in recent years. Former President Trump was able to increase his already strong standing in the Lone Star State in 2020 due to gains in the region. In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won the district by nearly 20 points. In 2020, Biden won it by 4.

"I think what you're seeing is what Republicans all along have hoped for, which is a way to market and attract Hispanic voters into the GOP tent," said one Texas-based Republican strategist.

Republicans made gains in the House in 2020 by diligently focusing on a message of being tough on crime, the economy and immigration over the U.S.-Mexico border. The GOP is touting those same issues two years later.

Seven candidates are vying for the nomination on the Republican side of the aisle, including Cuellar's 2020 opponent Sandra Whitten and Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-Texas) former deputy state director Cassy Garcia. Cruz endorsed Garcia.

A third Democrat, Tannya Benavides, is also running.

While Cuellar is dealing with the fallout over the FBI investigation, Republicans admit that the nine-term congressman remains a formidable opponent. Cuellar defeated Whitten in the 2020 election by nearly 20 points.

"On the one hand, while he has an investigation, that makes him super vulnerable from an ethics standpoint, from a policy and a messaging standpoint, he's tougher," said the Texas-based Republican strategist.

"He's done a very good job balancing the fine line between being a Democrat, but a moderate one," the strategist said.

It's unclear what will happen in the federal investigation in which Cuellar has become involved, but Republicans argue that while Cisneros's progressive views have galvanized members of the Democratic base in the district, they make her vulnerable in a general election.

"That why you're seeing a lot of interest from the NRCC and others in Washington, certainly here in Texas," the Texas strategist said. "She's out of touch with the district and maybe [Cuellar is] more in touch with the district."

Cisneros hit back at the notion that she was too progressive for the district in a statement to The Hill, saying her campaign's appeal is not because it is progressive.

"People in South Texas are tired of having a representative in Congress who listens to his corporate lobbyist rather than our families," Cisneros said. "The status quo is no longer working for them, voters are looking for change and I'm ready to be the representative that will bring that change to my community."

"I know we're the campaign that will keep this district blue because our team has been investing in capacity building and politically organizing to a degree that hasn't been seen before in almost two decades," she continued. "People don't support my campaign because it's 'progressive,' they support us because we are advocating for bold policies that meet the urgency of the moment and speak to the struggles South Texans face every day."

Cuellar and Cisneros have ramped up their attacks on each other in the lead-up to the primary. Cisneros highlighted the FBI raid on Cuellar's home and campaign offices in an ad earlier this month, while Cuellar has released an ad attacking Cisneros for her stance on immigration.

"Open borders, the defund the police stuff just does not play" well, said the national GOP strategist. "That's why Cuellar is able to run those attack ads that he is in a primary situation."

Cisneros outraised Cuellar by more than $560,000 in roughly the first month of the year, but the incumbent congressman still has more money in the bank.

National progressive figures, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), have gotten involved in the race.

Ocasio-Cortez traveled to Texas last week to campaign for Cisneros and Greg Casar, who is running for Congress in Texas's 35th Congressional District. Cuellar's campaign responded to the congresswoman's visit, saying that the primary was not taking place in New York City.

"The voters will decide this election not far left celebrities who stand for defunding the police, open borders, eliminating oil & gas jobs, and raising taxes on hard working Texans," the campaign said in a statement. "Members should take care of their own district before taking failed ideas to South Texas."

Ocasio-Cortez responded to the statement at a rally during her visit, arguing that Cuellar was not doing enough for the progressive agenda.

"A lot of people say 'Manchin, Manchin, Manchin,' " she said referring to Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has been a brick wall against much of the Democratic agenda in the Senate.

"But we know it's not just Manchin. You know who's helping him? Henry Cuellar," she said.

Republicans watching the primary dynamics play out are quick to note that their party's primary is not nearly as eventful.

"Whoever actually comes out, whether it's in this round or even in a primary, is probably not going to be nearly as bloodied up like the other two are doing to each other on the Dem side," the Texas-based strategist said.