Researchers: Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornadoes to increase 87% in Bucks County

Brace yourself for bigger storms and far more ferocious winds.

Researchers with the nonprofit First Street Foundation and partners from some of the nation’s top universities expect a major change in the number of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornadoes that reach Philadelphia and its suburbs.

In a report released last month, the group found average maximum wind speeds in Bucks County are higher now than they were 30 years ago, and 85% of homes in Bucks County have at least some risk. Researchers labelled both Bucks and Montgomery counties for a "major wind factor" with the greatest risk from tropical storms.

Warm ocean water fuels hurricanes and tropical storms. Twisters are fueled, in part, by high surface temperatures. Forecasts now suggest that such storms will occur further north along the U.S. East Coast and smack into homes and businesses not designed for such intense weather conditions.

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An embargoed study shared with the Bucks County Courier Times and Intelligencer suggests a 30% to 50% increase in the number of local homes and businesses at risk from tornadoes, tropical cyclones, and hurricanes in the next three decades. That estimate was specific.

“Hurricanes are tracking further northward. In the Northeast, there is a concentration of properties that will be newly exposed to some probability of tropical storm level winds or higher in 30 years,” researchers said. “The northward increase in hurricane activity may have a significant impact on buildings that have not been built to a code that considers the wind speeds they will likely face over the next 30 years.

“Annual damages are expected to increase by approximately 87% over the next 30 years,” researchers concluded for the Mid-Atlantic region.

First Street released detailed maps of specific communities at highest risk of wind damage. Details were posted at riskfactor.com For many still reeling from more recent storms, all of this might seem like a warning delivered too late.

In particular, 2021 was an extraordinary year for natural disasters throughout the Philadelphia region.

Twisters brought reports of damages in Buckingham, Bensalem, Bristol Borough, Doylestown, Hilltown, New Hope, Philadelphia, Silverdale, and Telford in 2021.

Historically, the state has about a dozen twisters per year. In 2021, Pennsylvania had 50. Then, Hurricane Ida rolled into town in September.

The remains of Ida blew through the region, leaving widespread and devastating damage. The storm spawned four tornadoes in Bucks and Montgomery counties, the strongest of which, an EF-2 with winds up to 130 mph, hitting Horsham and Upper Dublin, where one woman died when a tree fell on her home.

The storm also brought between 4 and 8 inches of rain to Bucks and Montgomery counties, adding to already record rainfall for the summer and leading to significant flooding. Two people died in Montgomery County due to flooding, and a Montgomery County resident died in Upper Bucks County when his vehicle was swept away in a flash flood.

In 2022, we seemingly got lucky.

No hurricanes traversed the northeastern United States, according to National Weather Service Climactic Data Center.

Of the four tornadoes spotted in Pennsylvania last year, only one touched down in Buckingham on March 31, 2022. Little damage and no injuries were reported on that storm, which ranked a low EF1 on the Fujita scale for winds of between 86 and 110 mph.

For climatologists, last year was a misnomer.

The Brooklyn-based First Street Foundation said it wants to educate the public about risks, which the government fails to discuss.

In 2020, the organization released a study of future flood damage risk, including properties in Bucks and Montgomery counties.

The U.S. governments FEMA flood maps put 3% of homes and businesses at risk for flood damage. First Street and its panel of university researchers said twice as many area homes and businesses were at serious risk of damage from natural disasters.

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Bucks County to see more hurricanes, storms and tornadoes, report says