LGI Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ:LGIH) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. LGI Homes delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, with sales hitting US$706m, some 18% above indicated. Statutory EPS were US$3.95, an impressive 46% ahead of forecasts. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for LGI Homes

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for LGI Homes from seven analysts is for revenues of US$2.63b in 2021 which, if met, would be a solid 11% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 6.9% to US$12.00 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.00 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The consensus price target rose 5.9% to US$138despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of LGI Homes' earnings by assigning a price premium. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values LGI Homes at US$150 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$131. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting LGI Homes is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that LGI Homes' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 15% annualised growth rate until the end of 2021 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while LGI Homes' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple LGI Homes analysts - going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for LGI Homes you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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