Reviewing Packers Wire’s 10 bold predictions for 2020 season
Making bold predictions can often be a fool’s errand before an NFL season, but any exercise in making predictions is mostly worthless without going back after to review what went into the decision-making process and how it may have worked or been flawed.
Back in September, before Week 1, we here at Packers Wire made 10 bold predictions for the Packers in the 2020 NFL season.
Let’s review those predictions now:
Rashan Gary, 7.0 or more sacks
Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Rashan Gary (52) celebrates sacking Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16) in the third quarter during their NFL divisional playoff game Saturday, January 16, 2021, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
Prediction: 7.0 sacks Actual: 6.0 sacks The possibility of a significant second-year jump and Gary's consistency of disruptive moments during training camp provided the foundation of the prediction here. It ended up being only slightly too optimistic. Gary had five sacks during the regular season and one more in the postseason. He really came on in the second half of the season and ended up finishing second on the team in total pressures with 46. Overall, it was a breakout sophomore season for the Packers' first-round pick in 2019.
Spreading the love
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: 8 or more players catch 25 passes or more Actual: 6 players catch 25 passes or more This passing game was always going to feature Davante Adams in the No. 1 role, but it had plenty to offer for secondary targets as well. A few miscalculations on potential breakout seasons killed this prediction. Both Jace Sternberger and Equanimeous St. Brown failed to take a significant step and were injured for a chunk of the season, Tyler Ervin wasn't a major factor in the passing game, and rookie Josiah Deguara went down after one game. Nine players caught at least 10 passes.
A.J. Dillon
AP Photo/Mike Roemer
Prediction: Under 250 total yards Actual: 320 total yards This prediction was on the right track, but Dillon produced a late season surge – highlighted by his 128 rushing yards against the Tennessee Titans in Week 16. The thought was that Dillon would struggle to get touches behind Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, which is what happened. He handled the ball only 58 total yards and just barely cracked 300 total yards over 18 games.
AP Photo/Mike Roemer
Prediction: Complete 65.0 percent of passes or better Actual: Completed 70.2 percent This one really hit the mark. Comfort level and timing within the offense in Year 2 provided the basis for the prediction, and both turned out to be exactly why Rodgers was so good and so accurate in 2020. He led the NFL in completion percentage during the regular season at 70.7 percent. Matt LaFleur made life easier on Rodgers, and he was sharp delivering the football all season.
Jan 24, 2021; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (83) runs for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Over 700 receiving yards Actual: 841 receiving yards This one hit too. MVS had some drop issues, but he also improved in several areas, and he turned out to be one of the most dangerous deep threats in football within LaFleur's offense. He led the NFL in yards per catch and caught seven passes over 40 yards, including five touchdowns. He needed only 41 total catches to get over 800 yards.
Jaire Alexander, Darnell Savage
AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps
Prediction: 10 or more interceptions Actual: 7 interceptions The volume was off, but the idea was right on. Both turned into highly disruptive players in the secondary. Savage intercepted four passes and probably should have had 2-3 more, while Alexander was a shutdown cornerback all season. This might be the best young cornerback-safety tandem in football.
Packers run defense doesn't improve
Green Bay Packers nose tackle Kenny Clark (97), defensive end Dean Lowry (94) and inside linebacker Krys Barnes (51) tackle Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) on Sunday, December 27, 2020, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
Prediction: No improvement Actual: Improvement A swing and a miss. The Packers allowed 4.4 yards per carry – down from 4.7 in 2019 – and closed with terrific performances against Derrick Henry and David Montgomery. It wasn't always pretty – see: Dalvin Cook, Week 8 – but overall, there was some notable improvement. The run defense grade at Pro Football Focus improved, and they improved significantly in their DVOA ranking against the run.
Elgton Jenkins
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Pro Bowl season Actual: Pro Bowl season A hit. Jenkins was terrific at several different positions along the offensive line – including tackle – and ended up as a Pro Bowl starter at guard. He really is one of the best young interior blockers in football. He could be an All-Pro caliber player by Year 3.
Robert Tonyan
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
Prediction: Catches most passes at tight end Actual: Caught most passes at tight end Don't forget, Tonyan wasn't the tight end most were expecting to break out in 2020. That was Jace Sternberger. But it ended up being Tonyan taking a big step, as predicted. He ended up being the right fit in the offense, and his progression both physically and in the scheme set the stage for a big year. He caught 60 passes. The next closest tight end caught only had 13.
Packers
AP Photo/Jason Behnken
Prediction: Win 9 or 10 games Actual: Won 13 games The fault here was vastly overvaluing the power of regression, and undervaluing how much better Aaron Rodgers and the offense could be in Year 2. I think most expected the offense to take a jump, but I'm not sure anyone could have predicted the Packers accomplishing what they actually accomplished on offense in 2020. Winning 13 games in the NFL is really hard, but the Packers made it look much easier this year. The talent gelled together beautifully. Credit to LaFleur and Rodgers and GM Brian Gutekunst and the whole organization. They built something truly special.
