RFK Jr.'s independent campaign: an equal opportunity threat for Biden and Republicans alike

It probably wasn't the campaign reboot he was hoping for. "I need my speech," a gravely voiced Robert F. Kennedy Jr. complained on Monday just moments after his wife, actress Cheryl Hines, predicted rally attendees would remember the day as "something really special." Grumbling that the teleprompter was upside down and that he "can’t read anything," Kennedy's pivot from quixotic Democratic presidential candidate to untethered independent was intended to give his dark horse 2024 campaign a much-needed shot in the arm, but instead fell victim to "Curb Your Enthusiasm" memes and comparisons to "Veep" — an ignominious relaunch for a campaign and candidate mired in allegations of conspiracy mongering and anti-vaccine agitation.

Technical SNAFUs notwithstanding, Kennedy's declaration of "independence from the Democratic Party" his family helped define in the past century has raised both eyebrows and concerns across the political spectrum — including from his own family, who denounced his candidacy as "perilous for our country" in a statement to Rolling Stone. Though RFK Jr. might share "the same name as our father," his siblings wrote, "he does not share the same values, vision or judgment."

During his five months as a declared candidate for the Democratic primary, RFK Jr. had been criticized as a potential spoiler for President Biden — one whose comparatively high polling numbers were an ominous sign for an incumbent seeking reelection. In that role, he had been praised by conservatives, including former President Donald Trump, who lauded the potential spoiler as a "common-sense guy" in a June interview with conservative radio host Howie Carr. Since switching to an independent run, however, Kennedy's rightward embrace has been decidedly less enthusiastic, with one Trump ally vowing to drop "napalm after napalm on his head,"  the person told Semafor, underscoring the conservative anxiety over Kennedy's spoiler potential.

Presents the GOP with a 'conundrum'

With the caveat that it's "been a while" since Kennedy's polling boomlet and that GOP opinions on him "may have evolved since the summer," an independent Kennedy bid could present a "conundrum" for Republican candidates — and especially dominant presidential frontrunner Trump himself — who will "have to devote at least a portion of the time he would otherwise dedicate to campaigning against the incumbent Democratic president to keeping Kennedy’s share of the Republican vote down," wrote Noah Rothman of the conservative National Review. And while conservatives have begun working to "damage [Kennedy's] standing among would-be conservative supporters," according to The Associated Press, Democrats for the time being have assumed a decidedly less urgent posture; in response to an AP request for comment on Kennedy's independent bid, a Democratic National Committee spokesperson replied "with an eye roll emoji."

To the extent the Biden campaign is worried about Kennedy, it's out of a fear that "GOP voters turned off by Trump might instead cast their ballots for Kennedy, instead of shifting their support to Biden," Politico reported.

'Spoil it for both of them'

Kennedy himself hasn't shied away from having been cast as a potential spoiler, declaring during his recent rally that he intends to "spoil it for both" Biden and the Republican nominee. And while the Biden campaign presents itself as unbothered, others in the liberal camp aren't convinced.

"Anything that divides the anti-Trump coalition" poses a problem for Biden, Matt Bennett, of the center-left group Third Way, told The Wall Street Journal. Moreover, Kennedy may have an advantage among Democrats as a result of "their lack of enthusiasm for Biden’s reelection campaign," Politico reported, citing a recent NBC News poll showing a "tied race between Biden and Trump in which Trump’s supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate."

Ultimately, Kennedy's independent campaign will be to Biden's benefit, Jeet Heer concluded in the left-leaning magazine The Nation. As with fellow third-party and dark horse candidate Cornel West, "these insurgent campaigns are heading into the political wilderness" and in doing so are "retreating from the one path they have to really influence national power: showing that there is a vibrant left opposition to Biden inside the Democratic Party." And if anyone will reap an immediate benefit from Kennedy's defection, it's Marianne Williamson, whose stagnant campaign "has another opportunity to make her pitch" with a clearer Democratic field.