RFK Jr. Is Very Bad News for Trump’s Election Chances, New Poll Says

Republican fears around Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent party pivot appear to be coming true.

In a potential three-way 2024 presidential election, RFK Jr.’s influence over independents would give President Joe Biden a seven percentage point advantage over Donald Trump, according to a new national poll by NPR, PBS NewsHour, and Marist.

The junior Kennedy, who began his presidential campaign on the Democratic ticket, drew the ire of Republicans last week when he switched to being an independent in his long-shot White House bid.

That decision is apparently leaching support among independents, and some Republicans, away from Trump.

The 1,218-person survey shows that between Biden and Trump alone, the campaign for the White House would be a tight race, with Biden securing 49 percent of the vote against Trump’s 46 percent.

However, when RFK Jr. is thrown in the mix, support for Trump drops to 37 percent and Biden’s number dips to 44 percent, with RFK Jr. nabbing 16 percent of the vote—a graver loss for Trump than previously predicted.

With Kennedy running as an independent, Democratic support behind Biden dips by five percentage points, while Republican support behind Trump plummets by 10 points, according to the poll’s findings.

The 69-year-old’s outsider campaign has curried favor with some members of the far right for disavowing aspects of U.S. history while touting vaccine conspiracy theories. But RFK Jr.’s numbers in the recent poll also speak to a growing demographic in American politics: independents tired of hyperpartisan politics who are looking for another option.

“Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favor,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “What this does speak to, however, is that about one in six voters are looking for another option, especially independents.”