Rhode Island health models: COVID-19 cases could peak next week, then plummet
The Rhode Island Department of Health expects skyrocketing COVID-19 infections to peak in the state next week "followed by steady, significant declines," according to the state's latest modeling.
COVID-19 patient hospitalizations, which have risen steeply along with cases this winter, would begin to subside around a week after new infections peak if the projections hold, Health Department spokesman Joseph Wendelken said in an email Friday.
"This has been the experience seen in other parts of the world with [the] Omicron [variant,]" Wendelken wrote in response to a Journal request for its latest modeling.
The state's median estimate expects peak Omicron infections to reach a daily peak of about 6,500 new cases, he said.
More: Patinkin: Omicron 'minefield' has short-staffed companies reeling in Rhode Island
Rhode Island reported 5,956 new cases Friday and a 20% test positive rate, a slight decrease from the record number of new infections reported Thursday. There were 445 COVID-19-positive hospital patients at last count, up 16% from a week ago and 39% from two weeks ago.
Although Rhode Island's daily new case average is at a record level, three times higher than last winter's peak, the number of hospitalizations remains below the peak of 513 from mid-December 2020.
"As you know, Omicron is extremely transmissible," Wendelken said. "However, it is resulting in less severe illness. For that reason, while our case numbers are far exceeding our case numbers from last winter, we don’t expect our cases-to-hospitalizations ratio to reach what it has at other points in the pandemic. This is also due to our extremely high vaccination rate."
Of course, all COVID-19 projections need to be taken with a grain of salt.
During Rhode Island's late-summer delta surge, state health experts predicted hospitalizations would rise slowly and then plateau in early fall before dropping off in November.
As it happened, hospitalizations did taper off in the early fall, but instead of going away, they took off as the weather got colder and omicron arrived.
panderson@providencejournal.com
(401) 277-7384
On Twitter: @PatrickAnderso_
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: RI health department: COVID cases could peak next week, then drop
