Will Rhode Island meet its climate goals? Why the climate council says it's too early to tell.

PROVIDENCE – Just about a year ago, the state panel in charge of climate policy was criticized for passing a plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions that was projected to fall short of the next interim target for reductions mandated by state law.

Terry Gray, chair of the Executive Climate Change Coordinating Council, told legislators this week that the modeling done at the time the update to the state’s greenhouse gas reduction plan was approved in December 2022 was “very preliminary” and that a more precise assessment is being developed.

“That’s going to involve some intensive modeling, some intensive policy review to really see what we need to do to meet the mandates,” he said. “So how many EVs [electric vehicles] we need, how many heat pumps we need, how much renewable energy we need in our system, all of those types of answers will come out of that modeling that will be a critical part of the report.”

New greenhouse gas projections expected next year

Speaking to a joint meeting of the Senate finance and environment committees on Tuesday, Gray, who is also director of the Department of Environmental Management, said the new modeling will be conducted as part of a climate action strategy due by the end of 2025.

The strategy will lay out in detail what Rhode Island needs to do to meet the goals set out by the Act on Climate, the landmark measure signed into law by Gov. Dan McKee three years ago.

The law not only requires the state to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, it also lays out a series of interim targets: a 10% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by 2020; a 45%t cut by 2030; and an 80% cut by 2040.

According to a DEM spokesman, a request for proposals for a consultant to direct development of the strategy is being readied for release and work on the project is expected to begin this summer in conjunction with community groups and state agencies.

Whether the 2025 strategy will come soon enough to assuage some of the criticism that the state isn’t acting with enough urgency to respond to climate change is an open question. The Attorney General’s office, Green Energy Consumers Alliance and others raised concerns after an analysis commissioned by the climate council showed that under the plan adopted in 2022, the state would fall short of the 2030 interim target.

Gray said the state is meeting what’s demanded by the Act on Climate in terms of working on plans and policies, but he acknowledged the questions surrounding the reduction targets set out by the law.

“I don’t know if we’re on track to meet all the mandates, especially the longer ones. That’s something that’s going to come with the more precise modeling,” he said. “But I do know we have updated the plans and we are doing the strategies and the planning component that I think is critical to charting that path forward.”

Signs of optimism in addressing climate change

There is reason for some optimism in the progress already made. The state surpassed the 2020 requirement for a 10% cut in emissions, with a reduction of 20.1%. While part of the reduction may have been due to the impact on the economy caused by COVID restrictions, the state was already well on the way to meeting the 2020 target before shutdown measures were adopted.

More will be known when the 2021 emissions numbers are calculated next fall. Because of the amount of data that has to be analyzed at the federal level, there’s a three-year lag in the release of emissions information. Gray said that he and his counterparts in other states are lobbying the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for quicker release of the numbers.

More: Leading by example? RI quietly extends time to meet zero-emission target for state fleet

There’s also hope for further progress as the climate council starts spending some of the money it was budgeted for the first time last year and with proposals in for federal grants that could bring tens of millions of dollars into the state for programs to cut greenhouse gases as well as projects to protect the state from rising seas, extreme storms and other impacts of climate change.

Separate from the climate action strategy, the climate council has started work on an online dashboard so the public can track the state’s progress to slash carbon emissions.

It will include some information that’s already available on the website of the Office of Energy Resources, including how many state rebates have been awarded for EVs, electric bikes and electric heat pumps, said Gray. But the dashboard would go further and project what those types of investments would have on emissions.

Sen. Louis DiPalma, chairman of the Finance Committee, promised to help the climate council in its work. He said that concrete metrics will be key in validating what the state does to comply with the Act on Climate.

“We like to think we’re doing all the right things, but the facts and data will articulate whether we are or not,” the Middletown Democrat said.

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Are RI's climate goals out of reach? State council says it's too early to tell