Richey | Avoiding full-scale roster overhaul critical

Mar. 18—CHAMPAIGN — The transfer portal has been open less than a week, and it's already filling at a remarkable pace.

More than 100 new Division I men's basketball players per day have decided they're unhappy with their current situation in some way, shape or form and opted for a change of scenery. The last three offseasons have seen at least 1,000 players make that decision. That includes more than 1,700 in both 2021 and 2022.

It's the new reality. Roster churn is now the expectation. Call it what you want — rebuilding or reloading — but it's now a yearly venture.

Not that it's sustainable. Illinois was faced with a nearly complete roster overhaul last offseason. It meant adding four freshmen and two transfers ahead of the season. Then two more freshmen before the second semester started.

That two of those freshmen left before the season was complete only emphasized how transient in nature a college basketball roster can be.

It's the teams that can hold on to a core group of players and then supplement that with freshmen and transfers that will be successful.

It's a formula that's worked for Kansas, which leaned on an old team to win the 2022 NCAA title. Then the Jayhawks stayed old. Their role players on the championship team stuck around and became starters and integral rotation pieces. A five-star freshman here and a veteran transfer there, and Kansas nabbed another No. 1 seed for a potential title defense.

That formula isn't exclusive to Lawrence, Kan., either. First-round winners in the NCAA tournament include several other teams — Houston, UCLA, Baylor and Penn State to name a few — that turned the right mix of returning players, freshmen and transfers into more success.

What happens in the next 55 days of the open transfer portal window will dictate if Illinois can follow that same plan. It doesn't have to be a second straight offseason with a complete roster overhaul. That also doesn't mean it won't happen again.

Brad Underwood doesn't have the answer to the question of what's next. Not yet, at least, as the process of re-recruiting his own roster and perusing the portal begins.

"I don't know," Underwood said in the aftermath of Illinois' 73-63 loss to Arkansas in the first round of the NCAA tournament. "It's a good question. Write the book, and I'll buy it. It's about communication and the process. To have any idea what goes through young peoples' minds, you don't know. It's always got to be about Illinois basketball and playing on the biggest stage and playing in a situation that we play the best people in the country.

"If they choose to leave, it's on them. Our freshmen had great years and helped us and contributed. It's not an entitlement thing. It's an earn it thing, and those guys earned it. If they're all back, we're going to be one of the best teams in the country."

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Getting everyone back, of course, is far from guaranteed.

Matthew Mayer is the only player on the Illinois roster that can't return next season. Terrence Shannon Jr. and Coleman Hawkins will likely have stay-or-go decisions to make as far as testing the NBA draft waters is concerned. The rest of the Illini will have similar decisions to make about the portal.

What Illinois can't have is another year where two-thirds or more of the roster doesn't return. It happened last year because of a mixture of exhausted eligibility, pro decisions and transfers, and it created a scenario where a nearly brand-new roster struggled to find its way.

That doesn't have to be the case this season. Maybe won't be if the Illini that can return — even if it's just the ones that aren't potential draft picks — actually do.

But another offseason that necessitates a roster overhaul could yield the same type of season Illinois just experienced. Good enough for another NCAA tournament appearance, but not enough to avoid what seemed like near constant highs and lows.

Underwood is big on program culture. Full-scale roster churn eats away at that foundational base.

Hawkins' season-end revelation was that he had regrets.

Regrets for not holding on tighter to the culture that former teammates like Trent Frazier and Kofi Cockburn helped build.

"Sometimes I thought they were just joking with the little details when they were holding you accountable," Hawkins said. "Now, I see what it's really like. I think this year I did a bad job of keeping that culture."

Underwood didn't disagree there had been some loss of culture. What he quibbled with was the amount, but acknowledged it's a risk with roster change like Illinois experienced.

"I don't think we've lost as much as maybe one might think, but it takes a lot of time to jell nine or 10 new guys. It's always got to be about us. When that happens, we're really good. That takes time. Rome wasn't built in a day.

"I've said it since summer. You just don't throw a group together. I don't care if you're the Golden State Warriors. You don't do it without chemistry and time. That's part of the new world we're living in."