RI's short, crowded and, at times, strange special congressional election

PROVIDENCE – When a dozen Democrats – none of them yet a household name – made the ballot to replace David Cicilline in Congress this summer, the off-year special election sparked excitement in Washington, D.C., and confusion in Warren, Woonsocket and Wayland Square.

National progressive groups saw in the 1st District primary an opportunity for victory after a lackluster 2022 election cycle, while other organizations hoped to send the first Rhode Islander of color to Congress in the state's history.

Jane Fonda cut an endorsement video. Bernie Sanders parachuted in for a rally and a rotating cast of Congress members jetted in for what at times resembled a factional proxy war over a safe Democratic seat.

As Washington tuned in, Ocean State power brokers – from the governor and House speaker to the rest of the congressional delegation – kept their distance, wary of taking sides, betraying a friend or alienating a constituency they might need in the future.

The airwaves were full of ads, but the messages sounded similar.

There were no independent polls, so for anyone hoping to back the winning horse, it was buyer beware.

More: We gave the CD1 special election candidates a quiz on the district. Here's how they did.

Could 1st District voters pick half the candidates out of a lineup? A quarter of the candidates?

With the Sept. 5 primary just days away, this unusually crowded election is still up for grabs.

In a campaign that began with Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos and former state Rep. Aaron Regunberg perceived as frontrunners, the conventional wisdom has now shifted toward Regunberg.

But as they've endured a series of awkward questions in debates – Matos over bogus nominating signatures and Regunberg over a family-funded super PAC – former White House aide Gabe Amo and state Sen. Sandra Cano have tried to make a late charge.

The field is the most diverse in Rhode Island history, with three Latina women running, three Black men and one Black woman.

But electing the second woman to represent Rhode Island in Congress, or the first person of color, is far from a certainty.

Whoever wins the Democratic primary between Regunberg, Matos, Cano, Amo, Ana Quezada, Walter Berbrick, Stephanie Beauté, John Goncalves, Stephen Casey, Spencer Dickinson and Allen Waters will in November have to face the winner of the GOP primary between Gerry Leonard and Terri Flynn. And the winner of that vote will have to do it all over again as an incumbent seeking reelection next year.

"If Regunberg wins, it will be a shot in the arm to Rhode Island progressives after a disappointing 2022 election cycle, though divisions among them are certain to remain," Providence College political science professor Adam Myers wrote. "If a woman or a person of color wins the nomination, the election will take on big symbolic importance."

Dancing, door-knocking and ice cream in Providence

On a sunny Saturday morning, California Congresswoman Linda Sánchez – in town to support Matos as chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus' political action committee – is getting a crash course in Rhode Island politics.

It starts with an event for the influential Laborers' union and moves to Providence's voter- and donor-rich East Side.

The 1st District includes 19 municipalities in three counties over roughly 300 square miles, but on this morning at least five of the candidates are campaigning in an area of a few dozen desirable blocks where the former office-holder Cicilline lives.

Coming out of the Butcher Shop after lunch with former gubernatorial candidate Myrth York, Matos and Sanchez pass Rhode Island's other congressman, Seth Magaziner, on the sidewalk. Cicilline had been at the deli moments before they arrived, someone tells them.

"That's Rhode Island," Matos tells Sanchez about politics in the smallest state while at their next stop, a block party in Upper South Providence.

Back on the East Side, Regunberg is telling voters door-to-door about starting the Providence Student Union a decade ago and his climate-group endorsements.

"Just touching base. I don't know if there are any issues you are particularly thinking about this year?" Regunberg asks a voter in the Mount Hope neighborhood. "The world is on fire, literally and figuratively."

The number of homes with empty driveways in this prime getaway weekend means a lot of walking for a little face time, and Regunberg wonders whether he should have hit the Lippitt Park farmers market a few blocks to the east.

That's where Amo is campaigning – until the ice cream truck he rented arrives.

"Free ice cream!" Amo tells passing voters on Blackstone Boulevard.

A conversation starter, the frozen dessert also helps link Amo, running on "experience" from his days in the White House, to the ice cream-loving Joe Biden. To drive home the point, the campaign posts a photo on social media showing Amo eating a cone in Bidenesque aviator sunglasses.

Knocking on doors a few blocks away from Amo is Donald Carlson, who dropped out of the race after spending $600,000 of his own money.

Goncalves, who represents the East Side on the Providence City Council, was also canvassing in the neighborhood that morning.

The only top-tier candidate not on the East Side that morning was Cano, attending an event across the river in East Providence, and this week as the primary neared she was knocking on doors near Blackstone Boulevard.

Why does this race matter?

The 1st District primary is part of the long push-and-pull between progressives and centrists for influence in the House Democratic caucus.

Though he agrees with many of his rivals on many big policy questions, Regunberg is running on an overtly populist, anti-corporate message in the Elizabeth Warren, Ed Markey, Bernie Sanders mold.

He is the only candidate in the field who would have voted against the Biden-GOP bill to raise the national debt ceiling this spring, a vote he spent a lot of time explaining in the first televised debate.

More: Where do Democrats in the CD1 Special Election stand on key issues? A complete guide

"To be clear, Aaron would not have voted to shut down the government if his vote was the deciding vote. That’s always been his position," Regunberg spokesman Matt DaSilva wrote in a note to reporters after the WPRI debate.

Cano, Amo and Matos, even if liberal by national standards, are firmly within the Democratic establishment.

Amo emerged from the corporate-friendly Raimondo State House and briefly worked as a lobbyist for Home Depot.

Matos was elevated to lieutenant governor by the centrist Gov. Dan McKee and is backed by the building trades that backed Raimondo.

Cano is on leave as Pawtucket's economic development director under the moderate Mayor Donald Grebien and is a member of Senate President Dominick Ruggerio's leadership team.

Much has been made of Cano and Matos potentially splitting the Latino vote, but just as important for the electoral math – they are also splitting the local Democratic institutional vote.

Matos has the support of the construction unions, women's groups such as Emily's List and former colleagues in Providence city government.

Cano has the support of the teachers and nurses unions, Pawtucket City Hall and the state Senate political machinery.

She's also created the most eclectic endorsement list in the race, bringing together North Providence Mayor Charlie Lombardi, who voted for Donald Trump, with state Sen. Sam Bell, who was endorsed by the Providence Democratic Socialists of America and is a longtime critic of Ruggerio.

Policy debates over climate change

One of the most interesting policy debates of the race had been between Regunberg and Carlson over climate change – at least before Carlson dropped out.

Regunberg says fighting climate change is "the work of my life" and after becoming a lawyer talked about going after fossil fuel companies through the courts before opting for a congressional run.

Carlson, an investor in renewable energy startups, wanted to harness capitalism to electrify the grid and said Regunberg is "always looking for a villain, someone to blame, usually a big corporation."

With Carlson gone from the race, Regunberg's vision remains, but he hasn't offered too many details for how he would protect low-income Rhode Islanders from higher prices while throttling back fossil fuels beyond making "Big Oil pay," or how to speed electrification efforts now bogged down by red tape. While some want to scale back permitting for energy projects, he calls on expanding the National Environmental Policy Act.

"We need a just transition to our clean energy future," Regunberg told the Journal in an email. "That means designing policies that don't leave anyone behind -- workers whose jobs are tied to fossil fuels, low-income consumers, or anyone else. We have all the resources required to do this, and then some. We need to end the billions in public subsidies we pay every year to the fossil fuel industry... and we need to make Big Oil pay for the damage and destruction its decades of climate deception and fraud have caused."

But who is going to win?

"Seats in Congress are a rare and valuable commodity, and open seats are in some ways the most attractive places for outside groups to apply their time, money and prestige ... especially in special elections, because you can influence the outcome with a comparatively limited expenditure of resources," Tony Affigne, a professor in Providence College's political science department and Black studies program, said about the race.

Affigne said voter turnout efforts will be even more crucial than usual. Last year, Magaziner won a six-way primary in the 2nd District with a little more than 30,000 votes. But that was in a regular midterm with a high-profile gubernatorial race on the ballot. Will the winner of the special election clear 10,000 votes?

"When broader enthusiasm is lacking, even among campaign workers it may be lacking, it is nice to see a Facebook photo endorsement, but it really doesn't tell us anything about what will happen on Election Day," he said. "How many are phone-banking, putting out door hangers, small events in living rooms? How many rides to polls?"

Compared with the 2nd District, where a very big chunk of the electorate is in fairly similar areas of Cranston and Warwick, the 1st District electorate is spread over a number of different pockets, Myers noted.

With that in mind, he'll be watching whether Regunberg is able to clean up in wealthier, highly educated areas (the East Side, Barrington, Jamestown and Lincoln) or whether a late surge from Amo or Cano in those neighborhoods will erode his perceived edge there.

Conversely, will voters in diverse urban areas such as Pawtucket, Central Falls and South Providence turn out?

"Given the diverse array of candidates, the question of what the voting breakdowns will be across jurisdictions and socioeconomic groups is really interesting," Myers wrote in an email. "In a special election like this one, variations in turnout can make a big difference."

Bill Fischer, a congressional campaign veteran now in public relations, said that in a normal year, even for an open seat, more candidates would have dropped out and allowed the race to consolidate around a few names.

"It almost sounds undemocratic, but in this case there are simply too many candidates on the ballot, and it is adding to a very confused electorate," Fischer said. "It will be very interesting to see if [total] turnout dips below 30,000. The lower it goes, it can be a very tight race and more predictable with more potential for surprises."

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Behind the scenes of RI's congressional special election