Rishi’s crime clampdown is wishful thinking

The Prime Minister is attempting to reassert the Tories’ position as the party of law and order. This week he is launching a raft of policies aimed at tackling the most visible of crimes.

Yet in the absence of a broader plan to get on top of crime, and the resources to do it, it risks becoming another attempt at governing by headline rather than outcomes. If that happens, it will only boost Labour’s attempts to capture the issue.

For voters in towns and cities, Sunak’s initiatives would be welcome. He is attempting to get on top of those persistent crimes that have a small, but ongoing impact. The things that gradually erode quality of life, and stick in the craw of those who take pride in their area. It’s a sort of “War on Filth” – with increased fines for graffiti, littering and fly-tipping, as well as a ban on Nitrous Oxide, the legal high whose discarded cans litter secluded alleyways across the country.

There’s an obvious appeal to those who take pride in where they live and are irritated by those who don’t. These are the sorts of crimes that get mentioned on the doorstep and have an outsized impact, affecting everyone in the local area. It’s also a cheap problem to tackle, with fines and community service far less costly than prison time for the state.

The test will be in the delivery. For the last twenty years or more governments have talked tough on anti-social behaviour yet failed to live up to their promises. Tony Blair once threatened that miscreants would be marched to the cash point to pay fines then and there, but it never happened. Ideas embraced by Sunak, like US-style jumpsuits for community service, have been kicked around since at least the Cameron era yet never made it onto the ground.

For a PM staking his reputation on delivery, Sunak had better follow through. At the same time, even if these measures do make it through it may not be enough for the Conservatives to reclaim the mantle as the party that is tough on crime.

Despite failing crime rates, there is a sense of deep malaise around crime fighting in the UK. Crimes like burglary feel like they are barely investigated any more, with the police simply existing to give you a number for your insurance claim.

Beyond that, the justice system is snarled up. The waiting times for Crown Court trials were spiralling before Covid, a problem then compounded by the pandemic. Some serious cases are taking years to go to trial, making convictions less likely as memories fade and witnesses lose interest. After that, sentences still seem short and unlikely to prevent reoffending.

If this continues, it doesn’t matter what Sunak does to graffiti artists and litterbugs. People care far more about their back door being kicked in, their bike nicked or their car stolen than their local area being blighted. Tackling the small everyday things only makes sense if the authorities have a handle on bigger, more devastating crimes.

Another raft of promises that the police and justice system are too over-stretched to deliver will not win elections. This is especially true when Kier Starmer is trying to seize the centre ground on crime. Last week the Labour leader announced his own, more broad-reaching plans on law and order. He too promised a crackdown on antisocial behaviour but tied it to a more ambitious plan to get on top of serious crime. He pledged to halve violence against women within the decade, reduce knife crime and push police to solve more crimes – as well as reforming beleaguered institutions like the Met. It might have been too tough to appeal to the far left of the party but could play well with floating voters who have seen words but little action from the Tories.

Sunak’s motives for aiming at anti-social behaviour are clear. These policies could be popular and cheap, and support his developing image of quiet competency. However, if he fails to deliver on this or more serious offences, it could be another area where the Conservatives fall short of their own rhetoric, handing a key policy area to Labour.