Rishi Sunak's soaring popularity may have made him a target for malign forces
Former health secretary Jeremy Hunt was left red faced when paperwork revealed NHS workers were “fleeing the UK” because of a hard Brexit in 2017.
It came after handwritten notes carried by an aide to former Minister of State for Asia and the Pacific at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office Mark Field revealed the UK’s negotiation strategy with the EU was to “have cake and eat it”.
Even former Prime Minister Theresa May fell foul of photographers when a memo was snapped going into Downing Street revealing her plan to approve new grammar schools.
Yet Chancellor Rishi Sunak appeared comparatively unbothered on Wednesday after highlighted notes revealed there would be “no horror show of tax rises”.
He was seen clutching the document annotated with hand-scribed additions in red pen ahead of a showdown with new Tory MPs in a bid to quell dissent on the backbenches over reports of tax rises.
Tory unrest over the Government's handling of the coronavirus crisis was compounded over the weekend when the Telegraph reported that Treasury insiders are pushing for "the largest tax rises in a generation" to respond to the recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Little wonder, then, that some suspected Mr Sunak’s rather careless handling of his private jottings in front of a phalanx of photographers outside No 10, may not have been entirely accidental. He appeared to make light of the incident in a tweet later, saying "got my notes on my phone this time". A Treasury source declined to comment on whether the leak was deliberate or accidental.
Yet as he faces a mounting backbench revolt over reported plans to launch a raid on capital gains, pensions, internet sales, fuel and inheritance to plug the multi-billion pound hole caused by the coronavirus crisis, the supposedly inadvertent divulgence could not have come at a more convenient moment.
Although Mr Sunak warned that there would be “difficult” times ahead, his reassuring words that “this doesn't mean a horror show of tax rises with no end in sight” will not only have helped to calm the nerves of Tory MPs but also Conservative voters.
Yet in the meeting with the 2019 intake, comprising many new “Red Wall” MPs, Mr Sunak is also understood to have said that the “British people” deserve to be treated “with respect”, insisting: "We cannot, will not and must not surrender our position as the party of economic competence and sound finance.”
As the Thatcherite free-marketeer finds himself in the seemingly oxymoronic position of having to plug the growing deficit while ensuring the Conservatives remain the “low-tax party”, Mr Sunak faces the same dilemma that has plagued his predecessors over the years.
Like almost all the chancellors who have gone before him, the 40-year-old MP for Richmond is caught between the Treasury’s desire for fiscal discipline and Downing Street’s demand that all pronouncements play well politically.
Hence why No 10 appears to have pushed back on the reports of tax rises and a fuel duty hike after they appeared universally unpopular with both politicians and the public.
As one senior Tory source explained: “The dilemma facing Rishi is that he is going to have to make the switch from being Father Christmas, handing out free furlough cash and hot dinners, to Scrooge, clawing the money back in any way he can.
“It’s always been in the Treasury’s DNA to balance the books, but most of their tax raising ideas are politically idiotic. The most successful Chancellors are the ones who realise that.”
Confusion still reigns over who exactly briefed the tax rises story when both Downing Street and the Treasury now appear to be distancing themselves from the reports. One theory is that major tax rises have been pitch-rolled to prepare the electorate for more modest adjustments - along with further spending cuts - when the time comes.
But some, perhaps more paranoid, Tories fear Mr Sunak’s soaring popularity may have made him a target. As he continues to ride high in the approval ratings, there are suggestions “malign forces” may be at work against the father of two, in the week Dominic Cummings and Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove have spearheaded the establishment of a new “mission control” at 70 Whitehall.
The move is designed to ensure No 10, the Treasury and the Cabinet Office all work more closely together, but some Conservatives see it as a “power grab” by the former education secretary – and his former special adviser. “Rishi is a serious threat – not necessarily to the Prime Minister, to whom he remains fiercely loyal – but other, ambitious Cabinet ministers," said one Tory MP.
“Is he in favour of huge tax rises? I seriously doubt it. Of course all this is being discussed behind closed doors but he’s looking at ways to make savings that create the fewest problems – both for him and the Government.”
