Rising COVID-19 numbers returning to pre-vaccine levels

Minnesota on Tuesday reported a COVID-19 test positivity rate of 8.3% that is the highest in the vaccine era and a level of hospitalizations that hasn't been seen since the first shots against the coronavirus were administered in mid-December.

COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota reached 960 on Monday and included 254 people needing intensive care because of breathing problems or other complications. While that is below the record 1,864 hospitalizations last Nov. 29, it is the highest in 2021 and combines with trauma and other illnesses to fill up 96% of available intensive care beds and 93% of non-ICU beds.

The escalating COVID-19 wave, fueled by a fast-spreading delta variant of the coronavirus, is a gut punch to public health leaders who hoped that vaccination progress would knock out the pandemic. More than 75% of eligible Minnesotans 12 and older have received COVID-19 vaccine since the first doses were provided Dec. 14-15 to a group of tribal leaders in Bemidji and nurses at the Minneapolis VA Medical Center.

"Delta has changed the landscape for COVID-19," state infectious disease director Kris Ehresmann said.

The state on Tuesday reported 10 COVID-19 deaths and 7,942 more coronavirus infections, reflecting pandemic activity identified over the weekend. The additions raise Minnesota's pandemic totals to 746,768 infections and 8,330 deaths. Nine of the 10 newly reported deaths occurred in seniors — despite a vaccination rate above 93% in that age group — while one involved a Morrison County resident in the 40 to 44 age range.

Minnesota's rate of new infections for the past seven days is seventh worst among U.S. states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with Midwest and Northwest states all seeing surges as well. Infections in hard-hit states such as Florida and Louisiana have dropped to among the lowest in the nation, mimicking delta variant waves this year in India and England that were severe but relatively brief in duration.

Breakthrough COVID-19 cases in fully vaccinated Minnesotans have been increasing amid the rise of the delta variant, which is responsible for more than 99% of new infections in the state. The rise could reflect waning immunity in the earliest vaccine recipients, which include seniors and people with underlying illnesses who tend to have weaker immune system responses to the shots in the first place.

Its emergence in mid-June came at a low point in the pandemic, when mask mandates and social distancing restrictions were largely lifted in Minnesota. The state reached a low of 90 COVID-19 hospitalizations on June 14.

Minnesota hospitals continue to report observational findings about COVID-19 patients that match recent vaccine research. While vaccines might be losing some effectiveness at preventing any infections, studies show they remain protective against severe illness, hospitalization and death. The most recent data from Sioux Falls-based Sanford Health showed last week that it had admitted 170 patients for COVID-19 and that 12 were fully vaccinated. Of the 32 patients needing ventilators to maintain adequate breathing, only one was vaccinated.

Jeremy Olson • 612-673-7744