Road to Super Bowl: With all eyes on the QBs, our picks for Bucs-Packers, Bills-Chiefs | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PLAYOFF PICKS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
BUCCANEERS (13-5, No. 5 seed) at PACKERS (14-3, No. 1)
Line: GB by 3.
Cote’s pick: GB 31-24.
TV: 3:05 p.m. Sunday, Fox.
King Sport’s Championship Sunday kicks off with a G.O.A.T. Bowl of an NFC title game. Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback matchup so seismic it almost relegates “Bucs at Packers,” The Battle of the Bays, to the undercard. They meet for only the fourth time — Brady leads 2-1 including 38-10 Bucs rout October 18 in Tampa — and first time in playoffs. Green Bay is the historic franchise. Tampa Bay, last this deep in playoffs in 2002, would play Cinderella here ... if not for Brady, who proved there’s life after Belichick and aims for shot at seventh Super Bowl ring. Rodgers meanwhile is after his long-elusive second, the smudge on his diamond resume. Tampa Bay key: Protect Brady, whose efficiency plummets when pressured. GB key: Get Aaron Jones and run game going, because nobody is deadlier than Rodgers when his play-action is working. By winning would become first team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium. But the Gee Bees are home now, and oh that matters. Lambeau in January, even with a pandemic-limited crowd, is a big edge, and Packers have won 15 of past 16 home games vs. Bucs. This is Rodgers’ fifth NFC title game but first at home, and he has better talent around him than Brady. (It’s anecdotal, but Pack has seven Pro Bowl selections to Tampa Bay’s one). Rodgers’ favorite target, Davante Adams, figures to dominate Bucs CB Carlton Davis. Key will be GB’s strong O-line protecting Rodgers better than it did in October. Pack is 11-0 this season when it has no turnovers; TB was fifth in takeaways. Rodgers got the best of an elite Rams defense last week. He will do the same against a lesser D Sunday in outdueling Brady.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
BILLS (15-3, No. 2) at CHIEFS (15-2, No. 1)
Line: KC by 3.
Cote’s pick: BUF 33-30.
TV: 6:40 p.m., CBS.
Yes, I expect Patrick Mahomes to play in Sunday’s late game — something still in doubt when I made this pick Thursday afternoon and Chiefs QB hadn’t yet cleared concussion protocol. He practiced on limited basis Thursday. Yes, I’m picking a Bills upset anyway. (Difference is, I love the pick if Chad Henne starts; I merely like it nervously if Mahomes plays). Either way, Josh Allen and that Bills offense can hang in the shootout I expect, and Buffs’ defense is improved, as Baltimore was reminded last week. Bills key in the AFC title game: Offensive balance, maybe? Because KC’s weakness is run defense. Chiefs key: Well, duh. Mahomes playing! It isn’t just the State Farm spokesman who was iffy for KC. So were Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Sammy Watkins and CB Brashaud Breeland. Buffalo being healthier was one reason I smelled an upset. Really, though, this pick is more in the hunch/gut category. This is KC’s third consecutive year hosting AFC finale, but this team for me isn’t nearly as dominant as the one that won Super Bowl in Miami last year. Eight straight KC wins have been by a single score. Buffalo, this close to a Super Bowl for first time since Jim Kelly’s 1993, seems on a mission to deliver for its long-suffering fans. This is first NFL final four in which every team averaged at least 29 points and every starting QB had 35 or more TDs. As if anyone needed reminding offense rules the modern game? Chiefs handled Bills 26-17 on October 19 but Buffs coach Sean McDermott is an Andy Reid protege who knows him too well to not adapt from that earlier meeting. With Mahomes likely not 100 percent even if he plays, give us Allen and the road dogs. Upset!
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Tough Divisional Round for us last week as we failed to see Bills and Buccaneers advancing, slapped by our misplaced faith in Lamar Jackson and Drew Brees. Also was wrong to have Chiefs covering the line over Cleveland, although bad luck entered there as Patrick Mahomes’ injury had much to do with that. Pack handling Rams was the one game I nailed both ways. (Like a good neighbor, Aaron is there). This is our 30th season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald and we thank you for joining us on the ride. Now let’s rebound and finish strong!
Divisional Round: 2-2, 500 overall; 1-3, .250 vs. spread.
Playoffs: 7-3, .700 overall; 5-5, .500 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.
