Rochester to see record high temperatures on Christmas Eve

Dec. 23—ROCHESTER — It hasn't been that long since Rochester experienced a Christmas with no snow, but this year could be record-setting.

Last year on Christmas, there was 12 inches of snow on the ground, but this year, the forecast calls for rain. The last brown Christmas that Rochester saw was in 2021, which was a record-breaking warm year for Christmas Eve. This year is on track to beat that record high.

"We're looking at record highs probably tomorrow (Dec. 24, 2023)," said John Boyne, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in La Crosse, Wisconsin, on Saturday. "The (forecasted) high is 53 for Christmas Eve and our previous record was 41 degrees on Christmas Eve in 1953 and in 2021."

The low was also expected to break the record for warmest low temperature on Christmas Eve. The old record is 36 degrees, but Boyne expected the temperature to bottom out at around 43 degrees in the morning.

"So temperatures primarily staying up in the low 40s through the night," said Boyne. "So it looks like both those records are probably set for Christmas Eve this year."

Christmas Day was also projected to be warm, with a high of 49 degrees. The record high for Christmas Day is 50 degrees, recorded nearly 90 years ago.

"We'll be very close to that record in terms of warmth," said Boyne. "The last time we were this warm would have been 1936 for Christmas."

The average for this time of year is a high of 25 degrees and low around 10 degrees.

The milder winter this year is attributed to two things — a strong low pressure system in the south and a strong El Niño season.

"A strong low pressure system coming from the south is also bringing warm air from the southern U.S. up into the area with southern winds wrapping around that low pressure system," said Boyne. "So it's bringing a lot of the warmer temperatures that are down close to the Gulf Coast northward up into the region."

El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. The warmer ocean currents can have an effect on Minnesota weather, despite the distance between the Pacific and the Midwest.

"We've got a strong El Niño taking place across the central and eastern parts of the Pacific and that typically results in warmer than normal temperatures for the winter," said Boyne. "So it just happens that those two are playing right together."

The uncharacteristically warm holiday season is also expected to bring rain and fog into the area for Christmas. The last time it rained on Christmas was in 2019.

"Back in 2019, it wasn't a lot of rain," said Boyne. "We had a 300th of an inch of rain on that day."

Temperatures will cool later in the week, becoming a little closer to what our average temperatures look like in late December.

"It should be cooling off on Tuesday a little bit and then we'll actually see some colder air coming in from the south for a change," said Boyne. "Even on Tuesday, temperatures are still going to be in the mid and upper 30s during the day and in the evening still in the mid-30s."

Rochester residents and visitors can still expect the season to feel a little more like winter as the season goes on, but it might continue to be warmer than average.

"With a strong El Niño, you typically will see a warmer than normal winter but that doesn't mean you don't see some cold periods in them," said Boyne. "Typically they tend to average for the entire season, usually warmer than normal so you see a higher probability of being warmer than normal temperatures and with a strong El Niño the odds increase that the average temperature of the season will be warmer."

Over the next three to four weeks, temperatures are expected to remain in the more normal range of winter temperatures.