Romanian ruling Social Democrats lead in surveys ahead of election year

BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Romania's ruling coalition government of leftist Social Democrats (PSD) and centre-right Liberals (PNL) would fall shy of an outright majority in a parliamentary election, even as an opinion poll on Monday showed PSD in the lead.

The survey by pollster INSCOP, held ahead of elections next year, showed that 29.5% of Romanians would vote for Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu's Social Democrats and 18.4% for the Liberal Party.

European Union member Romania will hold local, parliamentary, presidential and European elections in 2024. The coalition government is struggling to keep public finances in check and tap further EU recovery and development funds.

The two ruling parties could attain an outright majority following vote redistribution, which is done under Romanian legislation following parliamentary ballots.

Meanwhile, the ultra-nationalist opposition party AUR, which swept into parliament in the previous election, has been steadily rising in opinion surveys. INSCOP data puts AUR at 20.2%, ahead of the ruling Liberals.

However, analysts have said AUR would find it difficult to find coalition partners willing to work with it.

Ciolacu's Social Democrats and the Liberals formed a grand coalition government in late 2021, together with junior ethnic Hungarian party UDMR, which quit the cabinet earlier this year in a row over cabinet posts.

INSCOP data showed UDMR would get 3.8% of votes, below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.

Just over half, or 50.5%, of those surveyed said they would turn out to vote, the survey showed, with trust in state institutions weakened by corruption, red tape and poor communication.

The poll, commissioned by news website News.ro, surveyed 1,100 people between Oct. 23- Nov. 2 and had a margin of error of 3.0%.

(Reporting by Luiza Ilie; Editing by Bernadette Baum)