Rosendale drops Montana Senate bid — after less than a week

GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale is dropping his Montana Senate bid less than a week after he officially launched it, he confirmed to POLITICO.

Rosendale had publicly explored a campaign for months, teasing his entrance into the race in conversations with like-minded Republicans. But by the time he got in, it appeared already too late: Just hours after his entry, former President Donald Trump endorsed veteran Tim Sheehy. Rosendale said he concluded his path was irrevocably severed by the former president.

“As everyone knows, I have planned to run for the US Senate and to win both the primary and the general election,” Rosendale said in a statement. “However, the day I announced, President Trump then announced that he was endorsing a different candidate.”

Montana is a top target for Republicans looking to take control of the Senate. Rosendale finally launched his long-anticipated bid last Friday as Republicans look to unseat Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), one of just two Democratic senators running for reelection states Trump won in 2020.

The shocking reversal from the conservative lawmaker is a boon to national Republicans, who are backing Sheehy and eager to avoid a damaging primary. Rosendale conceded in his statement that in Montana, Trump’s endorsement of Sheehy would be too much to overcome.

Rosendale also faced a serious fundraising challenge given the head start that Sheehy and his allies had. Sheehy, who runs an aerial firefighting company, is also personally wealthy and willing to self-fund. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) recruited Sheehy and urged Trump to endorse his pick.

“By my calculations, with Trump endorsing my opponent and the lack of resources, the hill was just too steep,” Rosendale said.

Rosendale has not decided whether he will run for reelection to the House and said only that he “will prayerfully consider what is next” as he returns to Montana to be with his family. Trump has said he will back Rosendale’s bid for the House if he chooses to run there. The filing deadline for Montana is March 11.

The NRSC spent months trying to convince Rosendale to sit out the race, and Daines urged him publicly to build seniority in the House rather than take on Sheehy. Rosendale rebuffed all attempts — until Trump made his pick official.

“I appreciate Matt’s many years of service to Montana. It will take all Republicans working together to defeat Jon Tester in November,” Daines said in a statement.

Rosendale’s own advisers told him shortly after the Trump endorsement that he couldn’t win, according to a person familiar with the conversations. Rosendale famously snubbed Trump’s phone call last year as Kevin McCarthy fought to secure the speakership.

“I spoke with Sen. Daines earlier this week and we both agree that this is the best path forward for Republicans to regain the majority in the U.S. Senate,” Rosendale said in his statement.

Mike Berg, a spokesperson for Daines, declined to comment on the senator’s private conversations.

But the move is undoubtedly a boost for the NRSC. Montana is a must-win state for Republicans, and Tester is one of the most vulnerable incumbents. Now Sheehy will have a relatively clear path to take him on with no need to waste resources on a messy primary. And Tester already beat Rosendale in 2018, leading many Republicans to look elsewhere.

Rosendale’s decision could also cause a ripple effect down the ballot.

Some House Republicans are skeptical Rosendale will run for his House seat, which has become increasingly crowded with other Montana politicians. Former Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) announced last week he was considering a run.

Rosendale has made many enemies in the GOP, especially after his vote to oust McCarthy, and his long-delayed Senate rollout may have made winning reelection even more challenging.