Rounds of stormy weather set to strike central, eastern US this week
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While thunderstorms have been lurking across much of the Plains for several days, the northeastern United States has enjoyed a stretch of calm and dry weather, complete with low humidity and seasonable late-spring temperatures over the weekend. But AccuWeather forecasters say a change is on the way, as rain, thunderstorms and a surge in humidity are set to make for an unsettled first half of the week. In the Plains, some storms may even turn severe.
Intense storms have already been ongoing across the Plains. On Saturday, the Storm Prediction Center received nearly 40 reports of severe weather, including two tornadoes near the Colorado/Kansas state line. In Curtis, Nebraska, hail as large as baseballs was reported. Hail was the largest threat on Sunday, with more baseball sized hail reported in Callaway, Nebraska. In total, over 90 additional severe weather reports were logged. Overnight, storms organized into a line of severe weather that raced southeastward through Kansas and Oklahoma.
The threat continued over some of the same areas on Monday, forming just east of the Rockies and moving eastward during the evening and nighttime hours; a common setup during early June. An isolated tornado briefly touched down outside of Merriman, Nebraska Monday afternoon, adding to the threat list in the area. Top hail reports as a result of Monday's storms were also found in Nebraska, with 2-inch diameter hail found in Saint Edward, Nebraska and 1.75-inch hail seen in Petersburg, Nebraska.
"Many of the severe storms early this week will occur at night, increasing the danger they pose," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney said.
Many of these same areas will see a threat of severe storms yet again into Tuesday niht, with the threat area stretching from the High Plains all the way to the Mississippi River overnight. Like the day prior, hail, wind and tornadoes are all a possibility. Later at night as storms depart the Plains, damaging winds will be the primary remaining threat in addition to lightning and torrential rainfall.
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These types of storms not only can bring dangerous winds and hail, but also heavy, beneficial rainfall to places that need it. Nearly all of the western Plains are in some stage of drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, and these linear thunderstorm complexes account for a large portion of the rainfall seen in the Plains during the growing season. Many cities in the area have received less than half of their normal rainfall for the year.
While the frequent rainfall will be good news for the drought, the number of incidents of flash flooding may increase this week as a result of the repetitive thunderstorms.
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Meanwhile, a separate system will be responsible for a swath of rain and embedded storms across the east.
While thunderstorms are expected, these storms are unlikely to pose a major severe risk. While a storm or two may be on the stronger side and can bring gusty winds, storms are unlikely to reach severe criteria.
Into Tuesday night storms will progress eastward as a cold front advances from the Great Lakes to the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts. Cities such as Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and Buffalo, New York, will have their stretch of dry and pleasant weather come to a sudden end.
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Any thunderstorms into Tuesday night in the Northeast are unlikely to reach severe limits, and many locations will simply have rain as opposed to thunder and lightning. However, conditions may change rapidly in some locations as storms approach.
With the heaviest storms amid the pattern, some ponding of water and minor flooding cannot be ruled out entirely, especially in low-lying and poor drainage locations.
Aside from any rainfall, the uptick in humidity will be another notable aspect of this system. While the Midwest and Northeast have enjoyed dry and comfortable air as of late, the arrival of Gulf moisture will change things. The dew point temperature, a measure of how much moisture is in the atmosphere at a given time, may rise over 30 degrees Fahrenheit as the system approaches. While these values have generally been between 30 and 50 F as of late, dew points as high as 70 degrees will become more typical this week. Generally, dew point temperatures over 60 degrees are considered humid and uncomfortable.
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