Was Roy Cooper right about COVID restrictions? How NC’s numbers compare to our neighbors

One year ago this month, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper issued his first executive order regarding COVID-19, declaring a state of emergency in the face of the growing virus threat. The March 10 measure was the first of 56 executive orders that would close schools, issue and loosen restrictions and order individuals to wear protective face coverings.

Did they work?

That depends, in part, on who you talk to. The governor has enjoyed support in polls for his approach to COVID, and in November, voters gave him another four years in an election largely dominated by Republicans in statewide races. North Carolina’s health community largely concurs. “We’ve had sane and sober leadership, which counts for a lot,” Dr. David Wohl, professor and infectious disease specialist at the UNC School of Medicine, told the Editorial Board.

Others, including business owners and N.C. Republican lawmakers, feel Cooper was too cautious about reopening the state, leading to financial and economic devastation that will take years to overcome.

All of which falls against a backdrop of ongoing uncertainty about COVID-19. We’re still learning about this virus and how it spreads, and new information in the coming months and years will cast a more precise light on which public health measures were most effective against it.

Still, key COVID-19 metrics can provide insight into which states and governors did a better job containing spread and damage. Those numbers are clear. Compared to our Southeastern neighbors, Cooper helped spare North Carolina from the worst of the virus.

As of Sunday, North Carolina has lost more than 11,000 people to COVID-19, a death rate of 107 per 100,000 people. Only 13 states have a better COVID death rate, and in the Southeast, only Virginia is better with a rate of 100 deaths per 100,000. In Florida (144 per 100,000) and Georgia (163) — where governors notably opened states for business early — death rates are more than a third higher than North Carolina. Those states might have fared even worse had individual cities and counties — including Atlanta and much of South Florida — not issued more severe restrictions on their own.

North Carolina doesn’t release cumulative COVID hospitalization numbers, but a month-to-month comparison to neighboring states showed similarly lower numbers here throughout 2020. An example: In South Carolina, where Gov. Henry McMaster reopened earlier and was reluctant to issue a mask mandate, hospitalizations were regularly close to or higher than North Carolina despite being half its size.

Like other states, the combination of COVID restrictions and consumer wariness in North Carolina brought devastation on businesses and workers. But economic metrics are surprisingly mixed here. By percentage, a slightly larger share of N.C. workers have lost their jobs since the crisis began, but a greater share of N.C. small businesses remained open than in neighboring states.” according to the Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker. Also, North Carolina tax revenues have exceeded estimates by more than 17 percent.

Such data is certainly imperfect. We’ll learn more eventually about the economic impact of COVID-19 restrictions, as well as the role of state-by-state demographics in hospitalizations and deaths. Today’s numbers are also just a snapshot; North Carolina could face a short- or long-term increase due to Cooper lifting a COVID-19 curfew and easing restrictions on bars and sports with his latest executive order last week.

“I’m a little worried about pulling back so quickly,” Wohl told the Editorial Board Friday. “When I saw the new order, I wondered if this was too soon.”

This editorial board has not agreed with all of the governor’s COVID decisions, but we have appreciated his general aggressiveness in issuing restrictions and relative caution about reopening our state. The numbers, at least so far, show he was right.