Ruben Gallego could win Arizona, with a little help from MAGA

Rep. Ruben Gallego is finally going to supply us with an answer to that long-pondered question: Is Arizona really turning blue?

Here’s my guess: No.

But thanks to the Arizona Republican Party, he may become Arizona’s next U.S. senator anyway.

Gallego announced on Monday that he’s running in 2024, hoping to keep alive the Democrats’ record of winning the last three Senate contests. This, after three decades of Republican rule.

He’s got a great story to tell – the son of immigrant mother who grew up poor and fought for his country as a Marine.

But he’s also got a record of voting liberal in a state where the Democrats who win the big statewide races hail from the party’s more moderate side. Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly both ran as moderates, and even then they won by the skin of their teeth and the grace of going up against a Trump-endorsed Republican.

Gallego could win if Sinema doesn't run again

That, too, could be Gallego’s saving grace.

Gallego likely loses should this become a three-way contest. He needs independents to win, and conventional wisdom says Sinema would bleed enough of them to hamstring his race.

But there’s a big question mark about whether Sinema will run again after switching her affiliation to independent to avoid a Democratic primary with Gallego.

My money is that she won’t, knowing that her post-Senate stock would fall if she’s ousted rather strolling out in her thigh-high boots. But a Democrat confidante of Sinema's told me not to count her out.

"Sinema has a lot of money and she has the longest list of accomplishments of any senator in the country right now," the confidante said. "The bottom line, I think for her and for Biden, is how does fundraising go for both of them (Sinema and Gallego) in next six months and who do the Republicans put up.

"If there was a moderate person (as the Republican nominee) then honestly, at that point, Ruben’s chances are very, very tough and I think the Democrats would have to really think about that at some point."

Congressional shift:How did Arizona get here and what happens next?

Count Republican strategist Chuck Coughlin among those who think Sinema “absolutely” will run – and likely win a three-way race. ("If she could get 20% to 25% of the Democrat and Republican vote and 60% of independents, that's 43% in a statewide race. That's a win.")

But if not, Coughlin agrees Gallego could prevail in a state where progressive Democrats don’t fare well.

Grassroots Republicans still love MAGA

“Anything can happen,” Coughlin said. “I think it’s a very tough road for him to hoe. I think, quite frankly, they’re hoping that she (Sinema) doesn’t run. That would be the best possible scenario for him. If it’s between him and a MAGA candidate, that’s a good race for him.”

In a two-race, the Republican should win. Except, of course, Republicans are obsessed with nominating candidates who cannot win statewide races.

Martha McSally? Blake Masters? Kari Lake? Mark Finchem?

What these Trump-endorsed candidates all have in common is losing (twice, in the case of McSally). They cannot win in a state where a third of the voters are independent and even moderate Republicans hold their noses and vote for Democrats.

While you would think Republicans would have learned their lesson by now, there’s certainly no sign of that. The grassroots of the state Republican Party remain ulta-MAGA and, apparently, ultra-interested in continuing in the way of the Whig.

Will it be Kari Lake or Karrin Taylor Robson?

Democratic campaign lawyer Roy Herrera worked on both of Kelly’s campaigns, witnessing up close and personal how to win. He’s now working for Gallego.

“He’s got a great chance of winning,” Herrera told me. “It’s a presidential (election) year, Trump’s probably going to be the Republican nominee. The Republicans are going to nominate a Trump-like candidate and I think that’s what puts Ruben in a really good spot.”

I picture Gallego down on his knees every night praying that Kari Lake will be the Republican nominee, assuming she’s finished contesting her 2022 gubernatorial loss by then. Blake Masters would work as well, or perhaps Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.

Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost last year’s primary to Lake but has a bottomless bank account, would be a worry for Gallego. So would newly minted U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani, who like Robson hails from the party’s establishment wing.

All bets are off if the GOP learns its lesson

Gallego’s prospects really hinge on one question: Have Republicans learned their lesson?

Have they given up their obsession with stolen elections and culture wars and rotten RINOs?

Are they ready to return to talking about the traditional conservative principles that allowed them to pretty much run the state … until Trump came along?

If not …

“Ruben v. MAGA,” Coughlin mused. “If history has proved anything, Joe Biden wins that race. The Biden Democrat wins that race.”

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter at @LaurieRoberts.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Ruben Gallego could win Arizona, with a little help from MAGA