Russia believes key to victory is internal destabilisation in Ukraine, Head of Foreign Intelligence Service says

Ukrainska Pravda
·2 min read
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Oleksandr Lytvynenko, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, believes that Russia is determined to fight "as much as necessary", and the war has entered the stage of exhaustion. Russia will concentrate on three tasks regarding Ukraine: gaining advantage on the battlefield, destroying infrastructure and undermining social unity, Lytvynenko says.

Source: Lytvynenko’s blog on Interfax-Ukraine

Quote: "The goals are unchanged. Putin needs as much territory of Ukraine as he can get because the Russians believe it is about "the return of genuinely Russian lands".

The war entered the stage of a war of attrition. There is more and more evidence that the Kremlin is ready to wage war for as long as necessary."

Details: Lytvynenko thinks that Russia is already incorporating "the special military operation" (as the war against Ukraine is called in Russia – ed.) into the plans for the 2024-2025 recruitment of the Russian Armed Forces.

The Kremlin believes that it has enough military, technical, economic and human resources for hostilities with Ukraine at the current level for a long period.

At the same time, Moscow is convinced that Ukraine's internal resources are allegedly "approaching complete exhaustion."

Lytvynenko says that the Kremlin plans to adjust its strategy, following Russia’s FSB order, and stated that the key to the victory of the Russian Federation is internal destabilisation in Ukraine.

The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service believes that Russia plans to focus on three tasks:

  • pressure along the entire front line with the capture of certain, politically and media-important points, in particular Avdiivka;

  • destruction of critical infrastructure in winter (power plants, oil refineries, transport hubs) to reduce the quality of life in Ukraine;

  • undermining social unity by fuelling the ambitions and provoking the military ("only they can bring things back in order") and opposition political forces ("only they are worthy to rule Ukraine"). A critical mass of dissatisfaction with the policies of the current government should form in Ukraine.

Lytvynenko believes the Russians do not care who will come to power in Ukraine after the current leadership. Still, they are convinced that whoever it is, he or she will be unable to control the situation, and Ukraine will plunge into chaos.

After all, the plan of the Kremlin foresees that the West will suspend aid and come to Russia with proposals for urgent negotiations and a suspension of the war.

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