Russia is building momentum off its Avdiivka win and pushing deeper before Ukraine can get new defenses up
Russia has been pushing west past Avdiivka, which it captured nearly two weeks ago.
Its forces have now captured several small villages a few miles from the city's center.
Western intel and war experts say Moscow wants to make gains before Ukraine can build new defenses.
Russian forces are slowly advancing deeper into parts of eastern Ukraine, building off their momentum after capturing the war-torn city of Avdiivka nearly two weeks ago.
Moscow is moving to take advantage of the current battlefield situation and make territorial gains before Ukraine can put up new defenses in the area, Western intelligence and war experts say.
Ukrainian forces withdrew from Avdiivka on Feb. 17 following months of brutal fighting as Kyiv defended the small city against a Russian onslaught that came at a tremendous cost in both human lives and military equipment.
Since then, Russia has advanced a just under four miles from the center of Avdiivka as territory west of the city remains the focus of its offensive in eastern Ukraine, Britain's defense ministry said in a Thursday intelligence update. Moscow, the ministry said, has now "almost certainly taken control" of the villages of Lastochkyne, Stepove, and Sieverne.
"These tactical gains serve primarily to consolidate Russian positions around Avdiivka," the latest update said. "Russia is also likely seeking to build momentum on the axis to take advantage of the fact that there are fewer fixed, well-defended positions, and urban areas from which Ukrainian forces can defend."
Recent mapping by the Institute for the Study of War appeared to confirm these advances. Analysts at the think tank offered a similar assessment to the UK's intelligence this week, suggesting that Russia's moves represent an attempt to exploit the situation around Avdiivka before Ukraine is able to fortify its defenses in the area.
"Russian forces are likely continuing attempts to advance in order to deprive Ukrainian forces of the respite that would allow Ukraine to establish a more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive line in the immediate vicinity of Avdiivka," ISW analysts wrote in a Tuesday assessment.
The capture of Avdiivka, they added, "has allowed Russian forces to press on positions that Ukrainian forces have manned for a shorter period than Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka or further west, and Russian forces are likely sustaining a high operational tempo to try to exploit this tactical opportunity."
The analysts said that while Russia may be able to capture territory immediately west of Avdiivka in the near future, the geographical terrain beyond this area will likely slow Moscow's troops and complicate their efforts to advance farther. It will also allow Ukraine time to strengthen its defensive positions, they added.
The capture of Avdiivka, which was the result of an extremely bloody campaign, has been hailed as Russian President Vladimir Putin's biggest victory since the fall of Bakhmut last May. The battles have often been compared with each other due to the high cost of victory for Moscow in both situations.
After Avdiivka fell, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that Russia wanted the city because it sought a logistics and operational maneuver hub in eastern Ukraine's Donbas area. From there, Moscow would have a stepping-off point to conduct further action around Donetsk.
The Biden administration has pegged the city's capture on the chokehold that Republican lawmakers currently have on additional security assistance to Ukraine. The White House has said that Kyiv's troops were forced to withdraw from the city due to a shortage of ammunition and supplies — a direct result of "congressional inaction."
Kirby said earlier this month that it remains to be seen whether the Russians are going to be able to achieve their overarching strategic goal of taking Avdiivka.
"What we can say for sure," he said, "is that if the Ukrainians aren't better supplied, if they don't get a relief from the shortage of ammunition that they're suffering right now, this move on Avdiivka could actually have a larger effect on the fighting in the east and the amount of territory that the Russians might be able to get over time."
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