Russia tries to calm hysteria over Ukraine's operations on left bank of Dnipro River – ISW

Ukrainska Pravda
·5 min read
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The Russian Ministry of Defence and Russian officials are trying to calm the Russian hysteria over Ukrainian operations on the left (eastern) bank of Kherson Oblast.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts said that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke at the board of the Russian Defence Ministry on 21 November and stated that Russian troops had interfered with all attempts by Ukraine to conduct successful landing operations on the Kherson front.

Shoigu went on to say that Russian troops were inflicting "enormous" losses on Ukrainian forces.

Shoigu's statement is likely an attempt to reduce concerns among some Russian military bloggers (milbloggers) about Russia's inability to decisively repel Ukrainian attacks on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, but is unlikely to calm the growing complaints in the Russian information space.

Russian military bloggers continue to acknowledge the Ukrainian presence on the left (eastern) bank of Kherson Oblast and complain that Russian troops are unable to suppress Ukrainian operations in the area.

A Russian military blogger claimed on 21 November that Ukrainian troops had destroyed an entire Russian assault group near the village of Krynky (30 kilometres northeast of Kherson and 2 kilometres from the Dnipro River).

A Russian insider source stated on 17 November that a Ukrainian strike had killed 76 Russians in the 1st Battalion of the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District), who were trying to conduct a "diversionary manoeuvre" in Skadovsk district.

A Russian serviceman of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation) operating near Krynky stated in a video posted on 21 November that the Russian military was forcing servicemen who had not yet recovered from their injuries to conduct assault operations.

A Russian military blogger also posted a letter supposedly from a Russian soldier operating near Krynky on 21 November, claiming that Russian troops near Krynky do not have reconnaissance drones, which slows their movements and creates a risk of Ukrainian attacks.

In addition, Russian forces near Krynky also lacked firepower, as artillery and mortar units quickly changed their location to avoid counter-battery fire after carrying our "several rounds".

A Russian soldier claimed that his unit had little to no interaction with other Russian units operating in the vicinity and that the Russian command headquarters on the Kherson front was making poor plans because it received incorrect and delayed information. The same soldier stated that the Russian command on the Kherson front had failed to respond to the changes, which led to increased Ukrainian attacks.

Military analysts said that, apparently, military bloggers are not responding to Shoigu's statements, and ISW has not observed any significant changes in Kherson Oblast that have prompted these complaints.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces continued operations on the left (eastern) bank of Kherson Oblast and reportedly advanced on 21 November.

A Russian military blogger claimed that Ukrainian forces had attacked from Krynky (30 kilometres northeast of Kherson Oblast and 2 kilometres from the Dnipro River) and entered a forested area near a settlement.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops had continued to hold positions in Krynky, as well as near the Antonivka Road Bridge and a small railway bridge six kilometres east of the Antonivka Road Bridge.

Geolocation footage released on 21 November shows that Russian troops have advanced northeast of Krynky. The Russian Ministry of Defence reported that units of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation) are operating on the Kherson front.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 21 November:

  • Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather conditions.

  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian officials are struggling to subdue Russian hysteria around Ukrainian operations in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.

  • Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes on the night of 20-21 November and on 21 November targeting port and civilian infrastructure, including a hospital in Donetsk Oblast.

  • US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby reported on 21 November that the Wagner Group is preparing to provide an air defence system to either Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah or Iran.

  • Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin’s presidential campaign announcement has generated some discourse in the Russian information space, but most Russian milbloggers refrained from discussing Girkin’s campaign likely due to self-censorship.

  • Washington, D.C.-based analytics company Gallup found that Russian society’s confidence in the Russian military has marginally decreased in 2023.

  • German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced a new military aid package to Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv on 21 November.

  • The Armenian Ministry of Defence (MoD) denied Russian allegations that Armenia is planning to supply Ukraine with weapons.

  • Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused the West of destabilising the South Caucasus region by supplying weapons to Armenia.

  • A former Russian Investigative Committee departmental head who was serving sentences for accepting bribes from the Russian mafia died in prison on the night of 20-21 November, allegedly by suicide.

  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 21 November and advanced in some areas.

  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu addressed the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) Collegium on 21 November and announced that the Russian MoD is increasing its military training efforts across Russia.

  • US Department of State Spokesperson Matthew Miller commented on 20 November about a report that found that Russian officials in collaboration with Belarusian officials transported more than 2,400 Ukrainian children between ages 6 and 17 to Belarus.

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