Why many people think Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine: Yahoo News Explains
Over the past few months, the Russian military has amassed more than 100,000 personnel on its western border, as well as on the southern border of Belarus and in Transnistria, an unofficial Russian-allied rogue state on the eastern edge of Moldova. While the Kremlin denies claims it’s gearing up for a war effort, many Western officials have concluded these actions point to one thing: An invasion of Ukraine may be imminent. Yahoo News breaks down the current state of play, historical context and geopolitical motivations that could inform Russia’s next move.
Video Transcript
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- Over the last few months, Russia has been building up its military presence on its Western border with more than 100,000 troops now positioned to the Northeast and South of Ukraine with even more forces being moved in Moldova to the Southwest and to Belarus just a short distance from the Ukrainian capital of Kiev under the guise of training exercises. Many Western officials have concluded that Russia is on the verge of an invasion.
LLOYD J. AUSTIN III: While we don't believe that President Putin has made a final decision to use these forces against Ukraine, he clearly now has that capability.
- Russia's end goal isn't exactly clear, but this wouldn't be the first time they've moved into Ukraine in recent history. Back in 2014, Russian forces invaded, occupied, and annexed the southern Ukrainian region of Crimea. Pro-Russian forces also partially seized the Eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, and Ukrainian and separatist forces have fought a grinding war of attrition ever since. Russia considers Ukraine a core interest, and there's a lot of evidence they're ready to invade. But just the threat of invasion may be a ploy to get something else they want.
- Russia's demands include rolling back NATO forces from Eastern Europe and a ban on Ukraine joining NATO.
- See, for decades, all of this used to be the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc states under the thumb of Russia. But at the end of the Cold War, former Soviet and Eastern Bloc states gained their independence from what would be called the Russian Federation. East Germany rejoined the West and became part of NATO, a multilateral military alliance that includes the United States and was founded on the principle of collective security, that an attack on one member is an attack on all members.
NATO, which was conceived in 1949, is a defensive alliance that was historically focused on the perceived threat from the Soviet Union and now Russia. Over time, some of the former Soviet republics in Eastern Bloc countries also joined the alliance with Ukraine and Georgia on the pathway to NATO membership in the future, though many experts believe this process could take decades and may never occur.
For Russia, having the NATO alliance extend that far East into territory it considers core to its interests is a troubling prospect. And that's one of the reasons behind their recent buildup along the Ukrainian border. In addition to other interests Russia may have in Ukraine, they are deeply opposed to more Western influence there. Whether or not Russia undertakes another invasion of Ukraine, their recent actions underline the lengths they may go to keep Ukraine in their orbit.
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