Russia’s war plan after fall of Avdiivka – expert interview
Ukrainian military expert Serhiy Hrabskyi spoke in an interview with Radio NV on Feb. 19 about the significance of Russia capturing Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Moscow’s likely next moves.
Read also: Ukrainian Forces repel all Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhya Oblast — video
NV: How likely do you think Russian forces are to push further into Ukrainian territory after capturing Avdiivka?
Hrabskyi: The issue is quite complex to be described in a few words. But objectively, you don’t need to be a super strategist to understand that when the enemy cuts a salient, he has a certain number of troops released, which can be used in other areas.
But we must understand that there are areas that have always been critically important for the enemy. We always talked about the fact that active hostilities took place there. This applies both to Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in particular the Robotyne salient, and the Soledar salient, or as it’s more often called the Bakhmut area, and the Kupyansk area [Kharkiv Oblast].
That is, the enemy accumulated and prepared such strikes in advance. As far as I understand, they switched to this tactic of sequential actions. That is, not being able to advance simultaneously on several fronts, they sequentially solve the issues, one by one.
There was Avdiivka. They concentrated all troops there and even withdrew units from the Kupyansk area to step up pressure on our troops in Avdiivka.
Read also: Tavria grouping warns of ‘mopping-up’ operations as Russian forces secure grip on seized Avdiivka
They’re now deciding on the final sector to put their best efforts, whether it will be the Robotyne salient, or the Kupyansk or Bakhmut areas.
Therefore, it’s very difficult to say where the next pressure point may be. But it’s absolutely clear that the enemy is in a hurry and is trying to achieve maximum territorial gains.
Will it be some kind of breakthrough that will cause the entire front to crumble? No. But the enemy can exert tactical pressure with different intensity on various fronts. Therefore, we’re watching carefully how the situation will develop now.
So far, if we look only at media reports, the situation looks most threatening in the south, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where the enemy has previously deployed a large number of troops.
NV: Why are they in a hurry? Is it just due to the coming presidential elections in Russia, or because Ukraine is currently left without U.S. military aid?
Hrabskyi: This can also be a factor in why the enemy is in a hurry. Because today they have concentrated all the available resources to make certain breakthroughs. The enemy is making these efforts to advance, in particular, given that the mud season is around the corner, and they will be more limited in the use of heavy equipment.
The Russians are in a hurry, given that we currently have limited resources to counter them. But they realize that it won’t last so long, and that’s why they’re trying to make maximum territorial gain, creating conditions for further operations.
Now that they have pushed us away from Avdiivka, they are creating prerequisites under which they can build up the appropriate resources to launch a two-pronged offensive, whether it will be towards Pokrovsk or Kostyantynivka [in Donetsk Oblast].
The situation is similar in the north [Kharkiv Oblast], where the enemy is trying to advance in the Kupyansk area, near Svatove, and is actively fighting near Lyman. It’s obvious that the enemy is trying to advance to the series of water reservoirs that are limited to the settlements of Terny, Yampolivka, and Zarichne.
That’s where the enemy is rushing with desperation to close this area and create prerequisites for future operations as they cannot break through now. Therefore, they’re in a hurry, using both our weakness and natural factors to gain maximum advantages.
It’s not about a specific date. It’s about a period of time that the enemy will need to restore combat capability, build up additional resources and then consider certain possibilities of conducting offensive actions. That’s why they need to have certain tactical successes.
NV: East of Avdiivka, closer to Donetsk, there is a large road junction. Do I understand correctly that the fact that with the capture of Avdiivka, enemy logistics is now much improved in the region?
Hrabskyi: Absolutely. You don’t even need to be a military strategist, just look at the map: the enemy can now safely use this junction to direct troops and maneuver supplies. Or from the south to the north, if that’s how we imagine the possibility of an offensive on Kostyantynivka, or even if they can use the road towards the west, i.e. towards Pokrovsk, to build up the appropriate resources.
They significantly reduced the time of transportation of manpower, ammunition, weapons, and equipment, using the network and specifics of those roads. This is only in one area, if we’re talking about Avdiivka and its results.
If we’re talking about the Kupyansk-Lyman area, we’ve already discussed with you that it’s critically important for the enemy to complete two tasks. For further planning, it’s the capture of Kupyansk, and to be more precise, the Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi railway station, which will significantly bolster enemy ability to build up forces and resources. In addition, to advance to the border of the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers to create a further threat to advance, both to the west, to Kharkiv, and to the south, to the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk area.
That’s why they’re in such a hurry. Because no one knows how the situation will turn out for the enemy or how quickly we’ll get more ammunition, weapons, and equipment. The work continues, but as you understand, the delay in supplies now gives the enemy an opportunity to act more boldly. Neither we nor the enemy know how the situation will turn out for them later.
We’re bringing the voice of Ukraine to the world. Support us with a one-time donation, or become a Patron!
Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine
