Russian military commanders remain vulnerable "to accurate Ukrainian strikes" – ISW

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that the death of Russian Major General Sergei Goryachev indicates the probable redeployment of the Russian troops, as well as the apparent vulnerability of the occupying commanders "to accurate Ukrainian strikes".

Source: ISW

Details: The experts took into account information from Russian sources about the death of the Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District), Major General Sergei Goryachev.

ISW has observed other elements of the Eastern Military District, including elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army and 5th Combined Arms Army operating in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

"Goryachev’s reported death in Zaporizhia Oblast could suggest that Russian forces have dedicated elements of the 35th Combined Arms Army to operations in Zaporizhia Oblast and that some Russian senior military command officials continue to operate close to the frontline and remain exposed to accurate Ukrainian strikes," the ISW analysts state.

The ISW notes that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations on at least three fronts and achieved further limited territorial gains on 13 June.

The report indicates that Ukraine's Deputy Defence minister, Hanna Maliar, said that Ukrainian troops had advanced 250 metres northeast of Bakhmut and 200 metres south of Bakhmut.

She also reported that Ukrainian troops advanced 500-1,000 metres in the last day along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts, liberating about three square kilometres of territory in this area.

In addition, the spokesman of the Ukrainian General Staff, Andrii Kovalov, said that Ukrainian troops have liberated more than 100 square kilometres of territory since the start of counteroffensive operations.

The report also mentions that Russian President Vladimir Putin met with 18 so-called "milbloggers and war correspondents".

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 13 June:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three fronts and made further limited territorial gains on 13 June.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with 18 prominent Russian military bloggers and "war reporters" to discuss the progress of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 13 June.

• Putin discussed the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and noted that he believes Russia can outlast Western military support for Ukraine.

• Putin indicated he is unwilling to announce a second wave of mobilisation or declare martial law, despite maintaining his maximalist objectives in Ukraine.

• Putin aimed to assuage widespread discontent in the Russian information space about limited cross-border raids by pro-Ukraine forces into Belgorod Oblast, drone strikes across Russia, and border security in general.

• Putin discussed the importance of formalising volunteer formations, and supporting the Russian Ministry of Defence’s measures to centralise its control over operations in Ukraine.

• Putin is likely to continue to publicly engage with, and platform selects pro-Kremlin milbloggers to leverage the community further to expand his support among Russian ultranationalists.

• Russian sources claimed that a Ukrainian missile strike killed the Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District) Major General Sergei Goryachev in Zaporizhia Oblast.

• Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on 13 June.

• Russian authorities continue to express increasing concern over information related to Russia’s defence industrial base (DIB).

• Russian forces continued ground attacks on the Kreminna frontline but did not conduct offensive operations on the Kupiansk-Svatove line.

• Ukrainian forces continued to advance on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks, while Russian forces launched counterattacks near Bakhmut.

• Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and are transferring additional forces from east (left) bank Kherson Oblast to reinforce the direction.

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that the Russian military has recruited 150,000 contract service members and over 6,000 volunteers since January 2023.

• Russian occupation officials in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast are reportedly continuing evacuation efforts, although are likely continuing to deny services to some residents in flooded areas.

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