Russian ‘security elite’ understands that the war is lost, Bellingcat says

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Ukrainian defenders pictured against the background of destroyed Russian military equipment
Ukrainian defenders pictured against the background of destroyed Russian military equipment

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According to Grozev, these security forces “have reliable information” about the actual course of the war in Ukraine.

“I think there is an informed elite within the security forces who understand that the war is lost,” Grozev said.

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“(That’s) because the war was doctrinally framed as something that needs to be finished within one week. What is happening now this is some kind of ‘second’ war, which has not yet been lost to the end. But the first one has already been lost. That's for sure. The chances of winning the second war are also not guaranteed. We see forecasts that cannot be called optimistic from the Russian point of view, from those who are sufficiently informed and can express their opinions more freely.”

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Grozev also believes that Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin will not give an order the use of nuclear weapons unless he is sure that the order will be carried out. Grozev said a refusal by any of the five people in the command chain to use nuclear weapons “will be a trigger for a coup d’etat.”

“This refusal will be the trigger, most likely, for a coup d’etat, because after the refusal of even one (person) in the pyramid of responsibility to fulfill the order of the king, everything will go down very quickly,” Grozev said.

“In order for Putin to decide to order the use of nuclear weapons, he must be sure that everyone in the chain will follow the order. For he understands that even if one of the five, who must press the buttons in sequence, does not follow the order, this will be a signal of defiance and, perhaps, even the physical death of himself.”

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Earlier, Grozev said that Russian dictator Putin “no longer trusts anyone” and had decided to take over the role of supreme commander in the war against Ukraine.