Russians gear up for new massive assault on Avdiivka – ISW

Ukrainska Pravda
·4 min read
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Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), having analysed the data gathered, have noted that the Russians are preparing "for a third series of larger assaults near [the town of] Avdiivka" and "a third massive assault on Avdiivka".

Source: ISW

Details: Russian forces pursued offensive operations near Avdiivka on 3 November and secured confirmed gains on the northern flank of the town.

Geolocation footage released on 3 November indicated that Russian forces had advanced southwest of Krasnohorivka (4 kilometres north of Avdiivka) to the railway line north of Avdiivka.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops continued to resist Russian advances near Avdiivka and repelled over 17 Russian attacks near the settlements of Stepove (3 kilometres north of Avdiivka), Pivnichne (6 kilometres west of Avdiivka), Tonenke (7 kilometres west of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11 kilometres southwest of Avdiivka).

Later, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for the Tavriia Grouping of Ukrainian Forces, reported that no active hostilities had taken place near Avdiivka, adding that Ukrainian troops expected "the situation to worsen" in the area.

Vitalii Barabash, Head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, reported that Russian forces had engaged in heavy bombardments of Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka, with infantry fighting raging north and south of the town.

A Russian military blogger (milblogger) claimed that Russian troops had made an unspecified advance southeast of Avdiivka as of 3 November.

Besides, Russian sources claimed on 2 and 3 November that the Russians had advanced north and west of the settlement of Krasnohorivka, towards the village of Novokalynove (8 kilometres northwest of Bakhmut), as well as near the settlement of Stepove, and had broken through Ukrainian defences in the area of the village of Vesele (4 kilometres northeast of Avdiivka).

Russian milbloggers also claimed that fighting was ongoing near the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant (ACCP), the southern and southwestern outskirts of Avdiivka and the village of Opytne (4 km south of Avdiivka).

A Ukrainian military observer stated that Russian troops are rapidly building fortifications in the rear ground close to anticipated offensive areas near Avdiivka to enable them to bring reserves into the fray at a quicker pace.

The report noted that Ukrainian officials and Russian sources have indicated that Russian forces had been preparing for a third series of major assaults near Avdiivka.

Barabash said the Russian forces are amassing personnel and equipment for a third massive assault on Avdiivka, adding that the Russians are likely to focus their offensive on the ACCP in the northern part of Avdiivka.

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops were engaged in a tactical regrouping near Avdiivka and also identified the ACCP as a target for potential future Russian offensives.

Barabash said Russian troops would resume larger-scale offensives when the ground near Avdiivka dries up after several recent downpours.

Meanwhile, Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops counterattacked near Avdiivka on 3 November but failed to advance.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 3 November:

  • Russian forces conducted a notably larger series of drone strikes throughout Ukraine on 3 November.

  • The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced new military aid packages to Ukraine on 3 November, primarily aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s air defences.

  • Russian milbloggers continued to criticise the Russian military command for failing to establish long-term training capabilities because it is keeping skilled commanders and soldiers at the front and leaving inexperienced careerists to train new recruits and officers.

  • Wagner elements in Syria will reportedly transfer Russian Pantsir-S1 air defence systems that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to provide to Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah.

  • Dagestani officials claimed they would punish those who participate in and organise alleged future demonstrations, in contrast to calls for leniency for those participating in the 29 October antisemitic riots.

  • Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s continued appeals to Chechen nationalists likely aim to solidify domestic support without disrupting his appearance as a steadfast supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, near Vuhledar, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

  • Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers began advertising recruitment into an "elite regiment" in Moscow Oblast and offering recruits one-million-rouble (about $10,900) salaries.

  • Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova continued attempts to discredit information about Russia’s deportation of Ukrainian children.

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