Russia's Victory Day on May 9 could mark key deadline in its invasion of Ukraine

An upcoming national holiday in Russia could be an important milestone in that country's invasion of Ukraine, a war that has been more difficult than the Kremlin anticipated.

May 9 is Victory Day, marking the Russian defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945 at the end of World War II. Officials in both Ukraine and the West see it as a date by which Russian President Vladimir Putin could target progress in the war.

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The date – marking the end of what Russia calls the Great Patriotic War – is one that has gained significance in Putin's tenure "and has become a foundational moment in the Kremlin’s politics of memory and Russian national identity," said Hannah Chapman, assistant professor of political science at Miami University.

The Kremlin has staged massive shows of strength to mark the day, with parades and other displays of military might.

But not everyone agrees.

A Facebook post late last month from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine noted "there is a constant propaganda work being carried out among the personnel of the Russian Federation's armed forces, which imposes the idea that the war must be ended by May 9, 2022."

Russia, Putin and Nazism

The anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat is Russia’s most significant secular holiday, commemorating the Red Army’s military and the vast suffering of civilians. About 27 million Soviet soldiers and civilians are estimated to have died in WWII.

Moscow has used the holiday to point to how Russia has been a victim of Nazism and to lay claims to Russia's success in defeating it.

“Unfortunately, many of the ideologies of the Nazis, those who were obsessed with the delusional theory of their exclusiveness, are again trying to be put into service,” Putin said in a 2021 Victory Day speech, without citing specifics.

The accompanying parade, whose format varies little from year to year, included more than 190 military vehicles, ranging from the WWII-era T-34 tank to hulking eight-axle Yars mobile ICBM launchers.

According to Chapman, Putin has used this same narrative about the war to justify his invasion of Ukraine.

"The invasion has been portrayed as an act of self-defense against neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine that have been carrying out a genocide against Russians in Ukraine," she said. "This narrative clearly parallels the Soviet struggles against Nazi Germany and events in Ukraine."

Victory in Ukraine by May 9?

The weeks leading up to May 9 could be pivotal in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has sent millions fleeing from the country and left thousands dead.

Since it began on Feb. 24, Russia has faced fierce resistance from Ukraine, whose defenses have been bolstered by the U.S., NATO and other allies.

Failed attempts to take Kyiv and other cities forced Russian troops to retreat. In the wake of the pullout, journalists and Ukrainian officials reported scores of dead civilians, leading to calls for investigations of war crimes and accusations that Russia is perpetuating a genocide.

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Now, Russia is resupplying and reinforcing its invasion force in eastern Ukraine with a long convoy of vehicles heading there, indicating a new phase of the war is likely to occur, according to a senior Pentagon official. The focus is on the breakaway Donbas region.

The convoy, exposed in commercial satellite imagery, stretches an estimated eight miles. It appears to contain vehicles to command and supply infantry units and possibly helicopters, said the official, who provided intelligence assessments on condition of anonymity.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned of an impending Russian offensive in his country's east and has urged civilians to flee the region.

"The occupiers have sent dozens of thousands of soldiers and colossal numbers of equipment to prepare new attacks," he warned in a speech to South Korean lawmakers translated by NBC News. Josep Borrell, EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, issued a similar warning Monday.

Axios reported earlier this week that Western allies are rushing military aid to Ukraine with the May 9 deadline in mind.

Retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, a former National Security Council official, told Axios: "This is, actually, a bit more of a dangerous situation, more of a turning point, than anything we've seen thus far."

Contributing: John Bacon, Tom Vanden Brook, Associated Press

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Russian holiday on May 9 could signal milestone in Ukraine