Rutgers basketball 2022-23 preview: reasons to hope & mope, must-see games, prediction

It’s a subtle thing, probably imperceptible to all but the closest longtime observers of Rutgers basketball. But it was significant nonetheless: This preseason, for the first time in recent memory, there was precious little discussion about the NCAA Tournament.

Gone are the days when Steve Pikiell and his players were peppered about finally breaking through -- or going back. Now, dancing in March is the baseline. Pikiell acknowledged as much in fielding one of the few questions about it this fall.

“That’s what we expect,” the seventh-year skipper said. “We’ve come a long way that way.”

Even in the program’s glory days of the 1970s, Rutgers basketball never made three straight NCAAs. But it’s no longer news when Pikiell’s program moves the bar. That’s the story.

“Our goal is to go back-to-back-to-back for the first time in school history,” he said. “If you throw in the COVID year (2020) when we obviously won 20 games, it’s really four straight years. We expect to do that and that’s the expectation of our fans.”

With Monday’s opener against Columbia approaching, here is our breakdown for the Scarlet Knights’ 2022-23 campaign.

Three reasons to hope

1. There’s a winning nucleus.

Beyond Indiana, Rutgers returns the most quality experience in the Big Ten Conference. Captains Caleb McConnell, Paul Mulcahy and Cliff Omoruyi have been to two NCAA Tournaments. McConnell and Mulcahy have been together for 33 Big Ten victories and nine wins over ranked opponents. In an era of constant roster turnover, this kind of continuity is invaluable.

2. The center is a machine.

The 6-foot-11 Omoruyi averaged 11.9 points and 7.8 rebounds as an accessory last winter. Now in a featured role, with range out to the 3-point line, he will be Rutgers’ most productive big man since Keith Hughes averaged 21 and 10 in 1990-91. His battles against fellow Big Ten trees Hunter Dickinson of Michigan, Trayce Jackson-Davis of Indiana and Zach Edey of Purdue should be epic.

3. The Big Ten is down.

The conference lost a ton of talent. Only Indiana sits in Kenpom’s preseason top 20 (Indiana, at 12) and three squads made the preseason Associated Press Top 25. The Scarlet Knights finished tied for fourth last season and showed improvement on the road, winning at Indiana, Wisconsin and Maryland. They shouldn’t be wowed by anyone.

Three reasons to mope

1. Caleb McConnell’s knee

The reining Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year has been sidelined for three weeks and counting by what Pikiell initially referred to as a “tweak” of the knee. His body has been through the wringer over the years, so Rutgers should take every precaution in bringing him back. If his mobility is limited, this is not the same team.

2. You’ll miss Ron and Geo.

Ron Harper Jr. is now hitting big shots as a pro in the Toronto Raptors organization, and Geo Baker is pulling up in the boardroom with his Knight Society community-organizing project. With the shot clock winding down, these guys struck fear in the heart of opposing coaches and fan bases. That’s a big mantle to assume.

3. Is there enough depth?

At the end of last season Rutgers was getting production from just five players, and that proved to be an Achilles heel. Junior forward Mawot Mag looks much improved and freshman guard Derek Simpson is promising, but it was eyebrow-raising that five starters logged 30-plus minutes in last weekend’s exhibition against Fairfield.

Five must-see games

Indiana at home, Dec 3: Rutgers has beaten the candy-striped pants 500 straight times (actually five straight, and in seven of the past eight meetings). None of Rutgers’ current players has lost to the Hoosiers at home. If Indiana truly possesses championship mettle, this is the day to prove it.

Seton Hall at home, Dec. 11: The Pirates’ last win in Piscataway came in 2015, Eddie Jordan’s final season. In fact, the home team in the Garden State Hardwood Classic has captured five straight. These rivalry games have been some of the RAC’s most raucous. Bring your helmet.

Maryland at home, Jan. 5: Kevin Willard is not the least popular person on the banks (that would probably be Chris Ash), but he’s close. The former Seton Hall skipper would rather slurp battery acid than set foot on Rockafeller Road. He’ll get Maryland rolling eventually, but his new team could be a pinata for this one.

Michigan State at Madison Square Garden, Feb. 4: It stinks that the Big Ten deprives Rutgers of a true league home game yet again, but you’ll have great theater when Tom Izzo brings what should be a very good Sparty into the World’s Most Famous Arena.

Michigan at home, Feb. 23: When we last saw Michigan in Jersey, the Wolverines were taking cheap shots and trying to turn the handshake line into a royal rumble. They’ll be a quality side again, and Dickinson vs. Omoruyi will be worth the price of admission.

Our prediction

Can Rutgers finally avoid stepping on a land mine during a non-conference schedule with only two real tests? Pikiell has geared much of his approach this preseason, from his public pronouncements to his scrimmage scheduling, toward keeping everyone grounded. In June, this felt like an NIT team on paper. But after examining this squad throughout the preseason, it’s clear the talent and cohesion exist for another Big Dance ticket.

Projection: 21-10 (10-1 non-conference, 11-9 Big Ten) and an NCAA Tournament berth in the 10-12 seed range.

Jerry Carino has covered the New Jersey sports scene since 1996 and the college basketball beat since 2003. He is an Associated Press Top 25 voter. Contact him at jcarino@gannettnj.com.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Rutgers basketball 2022-23 preview and prediction