RV supply chain issues may be coming to an end

Apr. 28—ELKHART — RV industry economists believe supply chain issues may be coming to an end in the near future and shipments may increase.

During an RV Industry Association panel discussion Tuesday, ITR Economics Senior Economist and Econ Manager Eric Post presented charts further explaining the recent rise and decline of supply-and-demand chains.

The first of the pandemic supply chain problems came in 2020 when businesses shut down and the country had trouble producing for consumer needs. When the stimulus money came out, Post explained, buyer power increased and demand increased.

"It wasn't that people couldn't produce," he said. "It was that demand was far out stretching supply."

He added that the "realignment between demand and supply" could occur in 2022.

War and sanctions may cause minor supply chain issues, but for the most part, Post said, all signs point to normalization.

"It's important because when we see supply chain normalization occur, it means that inflation is going to ease," he explained.

The information came as part of an explanation on how the current economy can impact RV production and future sales for the local and national industry.

"War and sanctions mean that we're going to have a little bit of a prolonged period of inflation before those economic fundamentals kick in, but they will kick in," he asserted.

One thing that the RV industry may struggle with in the future, however, is higher interest rates, which RVers tend to see as much as 16 months later.

Post added that increase in personal income, some from the stimulus, some not, has also been seen.

"We have a really tight labor market," he said. "Workers are demanding higher wages and they're getting them. Anyone that has a job that wants a job can get a job."

Consumers, he said, are able to dip into their savings to account for inflation, but they've also decreased their debts. The study presented at the panel also showed debt decrease from 33% to 9%.

"That means people can go out there and get access to credit," Post said. "I think there's a bit of a sense around some pockets of consumers, some pockets of businesses of, 'Oh my gosh, it's another great recession that we're into."

He compared today's market to that of 2006 and 2007.

"It's a totally different consumer that's we're facing right now," he said. "It doesn't mean that inflation isn't going to nick away or that interest isn't going to nick away, but that people have the money to go out and spend and when they see something they want — like an RV — they're going to go out and spend on it."

In fact, 2022 projections indicate 591,000 units shipped nationwide. It's the second highest year on record, following just behind 2021.

"Really we're just normalizing," he explained. "We're normalizing off an exceptional year that was 2021 that has these nonrepeating factors like stimulus and like COVID-19, but it doesn't mean that the bottom is going to fall out."

Dani Messick is the education and entertainment reporter for The Goshen News. She can be reached at dani.messick@goshennews.com or at 574-538-2065.