How will the sabotage of the Kakhovka dam affect Russian forces in southern Ukraine and Crimea?
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For Ukraine’s forces, on the other hand, there won’t be any critical damage. I never considered it plausible for Ukrainian forces to undertake a main offensive effort which involved crossing the Dnipro. I am confident that the overall scenario involves a ground operation. If there are elements of crossing, they will not even play a secondary role, but rather a tertiary one. So, the fact that the Russian occupiers committed this terrorist act is a reflection of their panic and chaos, believing that Ukrainian forces would be crossing the Dnipro. Well, they did it without any logic or rational approach to this issue. Therefore, the destruction of the dam is primarily an environmental problem and, in fact, an act of genocide against the civilian population. The problem is primarily of a humanitarian nature.
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But in military terms, the biggest problems are being faced by the Russian occupiers. The Dnipro has already flooded their entire first line of defense, which they had located on the river’s left bank. It essentially no longer exists. This significantly reduces the Russians’ defensive capabilities.
The Russians have thus committed another war crime, equivalent to the use of weapons of mass destruction.
Will the Russians be preparing to flee altogether from the Left Bank of Kherson Oblast? Another problem for them: their destruction of the dam could cause serious problems on the temporarily occupied Crimean Peninsula. They will not have enough water there. If they flee from the south to Crimea, they will have to support all these tens of thousands of personnel, equipment, and so on. There simply won't be enough water resources, and this will be another disaster. So, I can only say this: the Russians have shot themselves in the temple several times. They greatly weakened their defense, while not disrupting our counterattack at all. They have planted a ticking time bomb for the temporarily occupied Crimean Peninsula. And, of course, legally, it should be noted that the dams have always been protected by the Geneva Convention as objects that cannot be destroyed.
A number of Russian units on the left bank were in the flood zone. I can assume that up to 20-25 thousand personnel are now in these uncomfortable conditions.
When the water recedes, how might it affect our offensive? This is the most interesting. If the water goes down, the Russians will not be able to restore the line, at least not quickly. For our part, this will really enable us to possibly breach their lines. I do not exclude this. After all, if there is no first line of defense, why not try to breach and enter?
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The current situation may affect the intensity of shelling in Kherson. Russians are using BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). It will be difficult for them to carry out this terroristic shelling now. The Grad is a wheeled system that quickly takes a position, fires off quickly (because they do not fire for accuracy, but for widespread destruction and killing). Then they quickly leave their position so that Ukrainian counter-battery fire does not have time to destroy them. But now, since there are problems with the terrain, there will be problems for them to carry out strikes. The Russians will try to continue to terrorize Kherson, but it will happen on a somewhat different scale, because they will not be able to fully use the terrain for the maneuvering required to carry out their bombardments.
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