San Francisco could land Deshaun Watson. The case for the star QB moving to the 49ers

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It might take a Super Bowl win for 49ers fans and media members not to speculate about making a change at quarterback the following spring. In lieu of that, here we are again.

Last year, despite having a late lead over the Chiefs, Jimmy Garoppolo played poorly enough in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl for the speculation to hit high speed when Tom Brady’s interest in joining San Francisco became apparent before he joined Tampa Bay.

Of course, 49ers general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan kicked the idea around. But they decided to stick with the younger Garoppolo rather than make a change to the 43-year-old Brady. The results? Brady is taking the Buccaneers to the NFC Championship Game in Green Bay on Sunday while the 49ers are licking their wounds following an injury-ravaged 6-10 campaign that included getting just six games from Garoppolo due to recurring high sprains of his right ankle.

Naturally, San Francisco’s quarterback situation seems far less settled coming off a losing season than the successful campaign in 2019 (save for the Super Bowl ending, of course). There’s a new name making headlines all over the league: the Texans’ 25-year-old star Deshaun Watson, who undoubtedly would be a sizable upgrade at quarterback for the vast majority of teams throughout the NFL, including the team residing in Santa Clara.

So, yes, if Watson is available as his relationship with the Texans publicly deteriorates, the 49ers should absolutely be in the market for his services. A situation like this is exactly why Shanahan left the door open to making a move at quarterback despite saying he expects Garoppolo to be his starter in 2021. What else could he realistically say, anyway?

The 49ers seemingly have enough talent at positions like receiver, offensive tackle (should they bring back big-ticket free agent Trent Williams), tight end, pass rusher and linebacker. They could contend for Super Bowls for the foreseeable future even if they have to send a haul of draft picks to Houston to consummate the trade for Watson. After all, the 49ers are just as likely to land another Solomon Thomas or Reuben Foster in Round 1 as they are Nick Bosa.

The case for Deshaun Watson

The case for chasing Watson is straight forward.

He led the league in 2020 with 4,823 passing yards even after his favorite target, DeAndre Hopkins, was traded to the Arizona Cardinals. He ranked third in adjusted net yards per attempt (accounting for sacks and interceptions) despite playing behind a bad offensive line that allowed Watson to take more sacks (49) than every quarterback not named Carson Wentz (50). He had a better passer rating than everyone not named Aaron Rodgers, the presumptive MVP, despite having a mediocre group of receivers featuring Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller and Randall Cobb.

Durability? Watson has missed one game in the past three seasons. Garoppolo over the same span has missed 23 — and Garoppolo turns 30 next November. Watson will be 26 in September.

If the goal is to contend for Super Bowls every year, a star quarterback of Watson’s caliber is the best avenue to get there. Based on what we know about Garoppolo, it would seem he needs ideal conditions surrounding him to win a Super Bowl, like having a generational defense paired with an elite running game. That was the case in 2019 when the 49ers needed just eight pass attempts from Garoppolo to throttle the Packers in the conference championship.

And with defensive coordinator Robert Saleh now the head coach of the New York Jets, on top of all the turnover that could happen in the secondary, San Francisco would be hard-pressed to field a top-five defense again in 2021. That means Garoppolo would have to take a significant step forward, and stay healthy, for San Francisco to contend in the NFC. That’s hardly a given now that Garoppolo had two of his last three years derailed by leg injuries.

At what cost? Watson signed a four-year, $156 million extension with Houston in September. But there’s good news on that front, too. Watson would only be slated to cost roughly $10.5 million if he were traded because his extension won’t kick in until 2022, when the salary cap could jolt back toward normalcy after the coronavirus pandemic. The Texans would be on the hook for his pro-rated bonuses.

The 49ers expect the 2021 cap to be around $175 million, which would make trading for Watson this offseason even more appealing. San Francisco could save roughly $16 million in cap money by making the switch to Watson from Garoppolo, which could go a long way toward addressing key spots in free agency.

Watson’s cap hits over the remaining years of his deal: $40.4 million, $42.4 million, $37.4 million and $32 million. He’d be due another contract in time for his age 31 season in 2026.

Watson’s no-trade clause

But there seems to be something missing from most of the chatter surrounding Watson and his next team, if the reports about Watson playing his last game with Houston are to be believed.

Watson has a no-trade clause in his new contract, which means he could control the process and pick his next destination. That could mean Watson gives Houston a list of teams he’d be willing to join, which could create a bidding war, or Watson could pick one team, leaving Houston with very little leverage when it comes to negotiating a trade.

Put another way, if Watson wants to come to the 49ers, then the situation would be relatively straightforward. The 49ers would not have to win a bidding war with a huge trade package, just one that satisfies Houston’s brass enough to go through with the trade.

Logically, San Francisco would be an appealing destination for Watson. He’d be joining a ready-made offense led by one of the most respected play-callers and schemers around in Shanahan with a bevy of weapons at his disposal, including George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert.

But there are plenty of other situations that could also appeal to the former Clemson star. Watson could join the Dolphins, who play in a state with no state income tax (California’s is roughly 13 percent, which is big chunk of the $39 million annual salary he gets from 2022 to 2025). Or he could join the Atlanta Falcons, the closest team to where he grew up in Gainesville, Georgia. Just about every team in the league not playing in the championship round this weekend could make a case for Watson.

There’s also a chance, however unlikely, Houston repairs the relationship with Watson to the point he sticks around and honors the contract extension he signed just four months ago. It might take the ridding of controversial executive Jack Easterby and the hiring of Watson’s preferred coaching candidate, Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. He reportedly interviewed with the Texans this week after not being on their initial candidate list.

There are still plenty of dominoes to fall surrounding Watson, including him formally requesting a trade (he hasn’t yet) and the Texans hiring a head coach who will be integral in the decision-making process surrounding the disgruntled star.

Either way, expect the 49ers to monitor the situation closely in the coming weeks and months. And if Watson wants to come to the 49ers, that option should be available to him. But the same could be said for a lot of other teams around the league.